Prior to the onset of COVID-19, much had been written about the appeal of emerging market debt (EMD), touting the yield advantage as well as its lower correlation to other fixed income asset classes. EMD has underperformed since then, leaving investors in Switzerland and beyond to wonder if and how EMD fits into their asset allocation. After a difficult start to the 2020s, we believe EM debt is now poised to outperform as headwinds from sharp increases in interest rates and slower growth are now reversing course. Thus, the tailwinds from lower rates, higher growth, and improving credit quality are setting the table for positive EM performance going forward.
Emerging markets are missing out on the wave of clean energy investment seen since 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA): “Global clean energy investment has risen by 40% since 2020, reaching an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2023, but almost all the recent growth has been in advanced economies and in China. By contrast, other emerging and developing economies account for less than 15% of total investment, despite being home to 65% of the world’s population and generating about a third of global gross domestic product.”
Polina Kurdyavko, Head of BlueBay EM Debt, explains the key elements in implementing a successful private credit strategy and discusses how select exposure can offer investors an attractive risk-reward balance.