2024 is already shaping up to be a year of considerable uncertainty. The first quarter has given us a taste of that with a sharp reversal of expectations for the US economy and the monetary policy plan of the Federal Reserve.
Investors continue to wait for clear signals as to the timing and extent of interest rate cuts. After last year’s significant progress on prices, inflation remains elevated and slow in its path toward target levels. That said, although the timing remains uncertain, we believe that the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will likely begin their downward journey sometime this year.
We believe Emerging Markets Debt (EMD) should serve as a core allocation in investors’ portfolios. The asset class has traditionally been perceived as a tactical investment opportunity or as an off-benchmark allocation. Instead, we believe a favourable macroeconomic outlook, the growth and transformation of the universe and the diversification benefits it offers means EMD should be a core allocation in investors’ portfolios.