All Indices/benchmarks articles
-
White papersIs the auto sector stuck in second gear?
The auto sector hit a series of roadblocks in Q2, causing several companies to scale back their growth forecasts for the year. What is the current outlook for manufacturers and suppliers and where do we see select opportunities?
-
White papersThe Endurance of U.S. Rental Housing Investments
Over the past decade, U.S. multifamily has been among the most sought-after sectors by institutional investors due to its necessity characteristic, the underlying strength of property-level fundamentals, and high historic risk-adjusted total returns.
-
White papersSurge of the Secondaries: Financing Growth in an Undercapitalized Industry
With the secondary market growing in leaps and bounds, raising capital remains top of mind for managers. It also underscores the importance of being able to access alternative sources of financing—a key, and sometimes overlooked, variable in the capital overhang equation.
-
White papersNo Autumn chills for Global Investment Grade Corporate fundamentals
Investment grade (IG) indices remain close to recent tights. Similarly, corporate fundamentals are in an extremely strong position. Our credit work looks to identify where there is a mismatch between the fundamental expectations and valuations of issuers, on a name-by-name basis. We also aggregate the single name expectations each quarter to give a view of the market as a whole.
-
White papersGlobal Outlook 2025
In 2025, we believe the core question to dominate economic discussions is where the unobservable natural rate (r*, the neutral rate of interest that supports full employment and constant inflation) lies and when central banks should stop cutting.
-
White papersGlobal Market Perspectives, Q4 2024: Hard to be gloomy
Global policymakers have responded to weakening economic growth, raising the odds of a global soft landing.
-
White papersChina: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
China’s recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer staples. While market sentiment has improved, the long-term impact will hinge on the actual scale and execution of fiscal policy. Investors are cautiously optimistic, but much depends on how effectively China targets its property sector and broader economy.
-
White papersSeptember jobs report: Not as weak as once thought?
The September jobs report showed a 254,000 monthly job gain, blowing all estimates out of the water. Not only does it suggest that the U.S. labor market is on a stronger footing than most believed, but it also suggests that the Fed does not need to maintain such an aggressive pace of rate cuts. Market expectations for a 50bps cut in November have rightfully plunged, and a 25bps reduction is now the clear market consensus.
-
White papersA closer look at European equities
Interview with Arun Singhal, Global Head of Product Management at STOXX.
-
White papersRate Expectations
Much has been written about the pace of likely interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We continue to expect a total of 75 bps by year end, with a first cut of 25 bps at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on September 17-18.
-
White papersChina’s policy measures: a pivotal week?
China’s policymakers have announced a significant package of easing measures designed to lift China from a state of entrenched economic weakness. Comprehensive monetary policy easing, targeted at supporting the beleaguered real estate market and boosting Chinese equities, has now been rounded out by an impactful pledge to support fiscal spending and stabilize the troubled property sector.
-
White papersU.S. Federal Reserve policy decision: securing a soft landing
The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of such large cuts with crises, today’s economic backdrop remains resilient. With recession risks receding and a favorable historical pattern during non-recessionary rate cutting periods, investors have reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s near-term outlook.
-
White papersRising inequality: a global sustainability challenge that needs our attention
As the global economy grows, an increasing number of people are being left behind. This is more than a moral crisis—it’s an economic one.
-
White papersU.S. Federal Reserve – a close call
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate cutting cycle this Wednesday. Market expectations are split between a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut, as the decision is complicated by conflicting signals of solid economic activity but a weakening labor market. Rarely have market expectations been so torn, so close to a FOMC meeting.
-
PodcastAmid the Volatility: What Are Investors’ Best Options?
Options, a seemingly daunting investment category, has been around for quite some time. Dating back to Ancient Greece, many investors have used Options as a way to mitigate risk. But how has Options trading evolved in recent years? What are the impacts of the upcoming Fed meeting and the U.S elections on this asset class?
-
White papersRally broadening is underway
A mild US economic deceleration, interest rate cuts by the Fed and an improving earnings profile could further support the broadening of the rally outside the expensive US technology names.
-
White papersWhat Fed rate cuts mean for U.S. equities: A historical perspective
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell has all but confirmed that the rate-cutting cycle will commence at the next FOMC meeting on September 18. Financial markets are currently pricing in 100 basis points (bps) of cuts this year—potentially equivalent to a 50bps cut in September and 25bps cuts in both November and December—as the Fed gears up to ward off recession. Its success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for U.S. equities.
-
White papersA Framework for Value Investing
As providers of an active value strategy, our team has built an investment framework through study and experience that we believe can lead to persistent outperformance. In this memo we outline this investment process based on a compilation of insights published by our investment team.
-
White papersWhy We Believe Quality Is a Good Guide for Value Investing
Value investing involves picking stocks that are trading at attractive prices as determined by metrics such as price book and price earnings. Clients sometimes ask us why Breton Hill takes a quality approach to value investing when so many of our peers are focused on distressed value. In this note we review the history of applying quality to value investing in an effort to improve outcomes. We then conduct an out-of-sample analysis to assess whether this effect still holds in the more recent decade subsequent to the publication of well-known quality papers.
-
White papersU.S. election: Policy and positioning
Heading into a contentious U.S. election season, investors need to avoid the noise and remain focused on the factors that will drive markets in the period ahead, including U.S. trade policy (particularly with China), geopolitics (particularly any impact on oil markets), and fiscal deficit management (given the CBO projection that the U.S. budget deficit is set to rise to 122.4% of GDP by 2034).
