Fixed Income
-
White papersFiscal to the Fore
How the budget battles in France, Germany and even South Korea fit with our fiscally focused investment themes for the year ahead.
-
White papersEuropean bonds shine ahead of ECB meeting
European bonds have performed strongly over the second half of the year and remain appealing heading into 2025 thanks to projected ECB rate cuts.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2024
A resilient US economy, the anticipation and eventual victory of Donald Trump and his recent appointments along with risks around inflation have been driving nominal and real yields over the past months. But US equities and the dollar rose amid a belief that the US economy would benefit from Trump’s policies at the expense of the rest of the world, i.e., Europe and some Asian countries.
-
White papersFixed income: New challenges for the easing cycle
Following an extraordinarily friendly market for fixed income in 2024, our fixed income teams assess the outlook for 2025.
-
White papersWhat’s next for France
The French fiscal situation deteriorated post-Covid. Public debt as a percentage of GDP now surpasses levels in the Euro Area, including Germany and Spain, even if it remains lower than the ratio in the US (which exceeds 120%).
-
White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
-
White papersIs the case building for Contingent Convertibles?
Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income at Premier Miton, argues that the case for Contingent Convertibles has never been stronger.
-
White papers2025 Global Fixed Income Outlook
The results of the U.S. presidential election are on many investors’ minds heading into 2025. What are the potential implications for global fixed income markets?
-
White papersGlobal Investment Grade Corporates: Let the Good Times Roll!
Major central banks easing policy, solid economic growth and moderating inflation should bode well for global investment grade corporate credit. So, is global investment grade corporate the current sweet spot in fixed income? We think it might just be.
-
White papers2025 Outlook: Global Fixed Income Roundtable
Against a shifting macro, political and geopolitical backdrop, our fixed income portfolio managers explore the future prospects for high yield, emerging markets debt, and investment grade credit.
-
White papersDeveloped APAC: Capitalizing on a Compelling Growth Story
The developed APAC direct lending market is relatively nascent compared to the U.S. and Europe but offers similar risk and return characteristics—with the added benefit of diversification and access to a compelling global growth opportunity.
-
White papersRise of the Residential Whole Loan
Given the potential for yield and capital efficiency, residential whole loan mortgages have been the fastest growing asset class in life insurers’ investment allocations in recent years. Partnering with a manager that has the experience and resources to navigate this dynamic market is key.
-
White papersStanding Out in IG Credit
Current yields and total return prospects are presenting an attractive case for IG credit—but a global and flexible approach is key to capturing the diverse range of potential opportunities to generate alpha.
-
White papersEMD: A credible long-term asset allocation candidate
Using cluster analysis and regression techniques, this paper highlights the importance of active management and bottom-up fundamental research in effectively navigating the multifaceted emerging market debt (EMD) landscape.
-
White papersThe Dollar and the Euro: On a Path to Parity?
Why we think it could take longer than expected, with better entry points still to come.
-
White papersInvestment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?
Spreads on IG bonds have been tight for most of the past year. Are we finally going to see a widening out of spreads? Even though spreads have been unusually tight for a long time, we expect that spreads will remain tight until markets become convinced about either a recession or a soft landing before we see material and persistent spread widening.
-
White papersStalling car auction sales suggest broader consumer weakness
The popularity of online car auctions has created a unique two-way market dataset that is liquid and representative of all the US. Alongside wider income and expenditure data, we can see consumer pressures rising up the wealth ladder.
-
White papersThe extraordinary US cycle is becoming more balanced
“Progressively softer labour market conditions and positive inflation developments support gradual rate cuts, allowing the Fed to bring policy rates closer to neutral levels.”
-
White papersInflation trend is falling
“With ongoing inflation swings, central banks will be increasingly data-dependent.”
-
White papersBond yields in Trump 2.0
“The Federal Reserve is continuing its cut-rate path, but it will be increasingly vigilant towards any inflation risks. We expect volatility in bond markets to persist.”
