All Blog articles – Page 2
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Fed Reignites the Search for Yield
Bolstered by broadening expectations for moderation in growth and inflation data, the Fed’s February meeting reignited the market’s search for yield and fueled the rally in risk assets.
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ECB in Pole Position to Over-Tighten in 2023
One narrative of 2022 was that central banks, including the ECB, were “behind the curve,” in their inflation fight. If this was right, financial conditions would need to tighten notably in 2023.
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Opportunities That Lie Beyond The Low-Default Era
The broad effects from the collective reduction in central bank liquidity will mark the end of the low-default era and the revival of a multi-year cycle.
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Yield is Destiny; Bonds are Back
Bond investors shouldn’t lose sight of the fact 2022’s historic increase in bond yields could lead to bond returns in the next decade that are two to three times higher than the prior decade.
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Credit Selection Supports the Allure of European Loans
The fourth post in a series on European high yield culminates with our views on how the asset class may perform under certain scenarios.
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European High Yield in the Era of Inflation
In our third post on the opportunities in European high yield, we place this year’s jump in yields in the context of our expectations for inflation to peak soon and decline thereafter.
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Benign Defaults to Buoy European High Yield
The second post in a series on European high yield demonstrates that default concerns and forecasts require context regarding the macro backdrop and how these projections are constructed.
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European High Yield—Planning for Yields to Peak Soon
In the first of a series of European high yield posts, we assess the sector’s compelling characteristics and compare them to our expectations for monetary policy and inflation.
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A Sobering Outlook for the UK Economy, but the BoE Is Back on Track
The UK’s strong post-pandemic recovery, thanks to positive policy support measures, had been its saving grace. But a succession of negative shocks – Brexit, the pandemic and rising energy prices – is creating huge uncertainty to the outlook.
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The Fed’s Finally Getting in the Zone
The Federal Reserve’s latest 75 bps rate hike was accompanied by a more nuanced tone. While it emphasized continued vigilance in fighting inflation, it acknowledged the slowdown in certain economic segments.
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Voilà! Is the ECB Capable of Going Big?
The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised investors with an outsized 50 bp rate hike today, taking its policy rate out of negative territory in one fell swoop. But the ECB’s Governing Council underwhelmed with its vague announcement of a new tool, known as the transmission protection instrument (TPI). This tool is meant to ensure the even transmission of monetary policy across the euro area.
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The Extending Chain Reaction of Dollar Dominance
Strength in the U.S. dollar historically leads to anticipation about its effects on commodity prices and the prospects for the emerging markets. However, as monetary policy rates diverge and Europe’s energy crisis intensifies, the dollar’s significant appreciation against the Japanese yen and the euro points to an extending chain reaction.
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The Fed and the “Buy-the-Dip” Mentality
Since the global financial crisis, investors have become accustomed to the “Fed put” during periods of market stress. Severe downdrafts in risky assets and their associated risks to growth were met by a Fed willing to ease policy in an effort to meet the maximum-employment side of its dual mandate.
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Dispatches from Cairo: Bitter Medicine for Stronger Growth
”It is a medicine with a very bitter taste, but it will make us stronger.” – Taxi driver commenting on the Egyptian government’s policies.
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Blog
EDITORIAL | Smartening up cities
Cities are people magnets! And – given ongoing urbanisation – evidence shows their power to attract is ever increasing. Some 56% of the worldʼs 7.9 billion people already live in cities, and the number of urban dwellers will swell dramatically in the coming decades.
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Powell Soft Pedals 75 bps Hike as Markets Remain on Edge
The Federal Reserve assumed an even more aggressive stance at its meeting on June 15 in light of persistently high and broad-based inflation readings and indications—at least from a few measures—that medium-term inflation expectations are starting to march higher.
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The ECB Bangs the Inflation Drum
The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised investors with a hawkish message from its policy meeting today. It backed that message up with a clear roadmap for the coming months, out of net asset purchases and out of negative interest rates.
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“Friend-shoring:” Does Regional Retrenchment Herald Lower EM Growth?
Just as the world economy was recovering from COVID-19, 2022 brought fresh challenges. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, higher energy prices, food shortages and protectionist tensions all weigh on emerging-market (EM) growth. As a result, the IMF lowered its EM growth outlook for 2022 from +4.8% in January to +3.8% in April.
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Blog
Ukraine conflict: a turning point for energy security?
In our recent post on the effects of the Ukraine conflict on real assets, we touched on the potential long-term implications for European clean-energy markets. In this blog, we look at how European policymakers are not only aiming to achieve their climate objectives but also support energy security.
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Ukraine conflict: UK real estate impacts
In our latest blog on the conflict in Ukraine, we examine the immediate effect on the UK institutional real estate market and make some tentative observations on potential long-term implications for real assets.
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