Recently, policy shifts in the U.S. toward global trade agreements suggest that the industrial and warehouse sectors in the U.S. are facing a period of transition. Although the full implications of a more restrictive trade—at least in the near term—have not been fully observed in the data, they have placed the sector under increased scrutiny.

In this paper, we examine the industrial sector’s changing landscape, highlighting the key implications for investors and operators as the environment becomes more complex and selective. We will also discuss the longer-term implications for the sector, which we believe remains a vital part of the global economy’s infrastructure.

Market performance and capitalization trends

Recent shifts in U.S. trade policy have cast a shadow over the industrial sector’s outlook. The sector entered 2025 after a challenging year for operators, largely driven by a moderation in demand, active supply pipelines in key markets, and continued capital market challenges that have affected nearly all property sectors. Recent policy changes—particularly the broad-based implementation of tariffs—have the potential to shift the environment dramatically.

The industrial sector’s recent history is characterized by outsized returns and surging investor interest. Since the pandemic, the sector has averaged total returns of over 12%, placing industrial assets among the best performers in commercial real estate. The sector, however, has not been immune to the cyclical downturn since 2022, which has seen private equity values decline by 12.3% since peaking in 2022.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below