Content (108)
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White papersWhat a 5% 10-year Treasury means for commercial real estate
As the 10-year Treasury pushes toward 4.75% for the first time since January 2025, investors are asking what it means for U.S. commercial real estate (CRE). Importantly, the reason rates are rising matters as much as the level. What began as an orderly move in real rates and term premium is now giving way to something less benign - rising inflation expectations and a bond market that’s testing the Fed’s resolve. A 10-year yield near 5% raises the bar for CRE, but it sharpens our thesis rather than breaks it: net operating income (NOI) growth and selectivity are what will likely separate winners from the rest.
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White papersCutting through the noise: Why lower and core middle market direct lending still delivers value in clients’ portfolios
Private credit has become one of the most discussed corners of institutional investing — and one of the most misunderstood. Daily headlines about troubled borrowers, struggling business development companies (BDCs), redemption pressure, and concentrated software exposure have created the impression of a market under stress. But beneath the noise, the lower and core middle market direct lending segment that has historically powered investor outcomes is performing well, behaving as designed, and, in our view, is about to deliver one of its most attractive vintages in years.
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White papers2Q26 U.S. Transaction Volumes Rise +14% YoY
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increased in 2Q26, with headline volumes rising +14% YoY to $136.6bn. This represents the ninth consecutive quarter of rising YoY transaction volumes and may help to alleviate concerns of a slowdown given an uncertain macro backdrop.
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White papersA quantitative framework for estimating CRE cycles
The commercial real estate market is at or near a cyclical trough and transitioning into an early-cycle recovery phase, and history says what comes next is long and durable.
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White papersHow U.S. middle market direct lending complements and enhances European portfolios
Direct lending continues to expand across Europe as institutional and sophisticated high-net-worth investors recognize the attractive opportunities available. Demand for private credit, and specifically middle market direct lending, is growing faster than supply, prompting investors to look beyond their domestic markets.
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Research ReportResilient U.S. transaction volumes: +15% YoY in May
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increasing, with headline volumes rising +15% YoY to $42bn. Equally notable, April 2026 was revised meaningfully higher, narrowing that month’s YoY decline to -14%, from -33% previously. As a result, 2Q26-to-date volumes now stand at +0.8% YoY, and YTD volumes are tracking ~20% ahead of the same period last year.
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White papersLending standards hold steady, with early easing at large banks
The Federal Reserve’s newly released Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for April reinforces our view that the CRE lending environment is stable and, in fact, selectively easing, even amid a more volatile macro backdrop. While the headline result points to largely unchanged lending standards, the underlying detail tells a more constructive story.
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White papersReal estate fundamentals remain intact amid geopolitical noise
Geopolitical risk has intensified, but markets are signaling volatility rather than systemic stress, which matters for commercial real estate. So far, the impact has flowed through commodity prices, not a repricing of long-term rates or broader financial conditions, helping preserve valuation support for income-oriented assets.
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White papersREITs at new highs: Early expansion, not the end of the cycle
New market highs are often mistaken for late-cycle signals, but history suggests they more often mark the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. And in real estate market cycles, highs tend to occur not when risk is peaking, but when a prior valuation reset, early recovery dynamics, and strengthening fundamentals start to align.
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White papersAnalyzing the wall of maturities: The plural of anecdotes is not data
The so-called “wall of maturities” is a perennial source of investor anxiety: will refinancing risk create a wave of defaults? Given nearly $900bn of loans maturing in 2026 and more than $2tn coming due over the next three years, that concern is understandable. However, the experience of recent maturities suggests outcomes have been far less dire than feared and offers a useful roadmap for what lies ahead.
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White papersRetail’s rebound: The case for selective, institutional conviction
Retail real estate is stabilizing after years of disruption, with well-located, experience-driven assets showing resilience - making selectivity and institutional discipline key to capturing recovery upside.
