Content (111)
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White papersPositioning portfolios for higher long-term interest rates
Whether long-term interest rates will remain above their post pandemic high is an open question. The 10-year Treasury rate hit highs of 4.98% in October 2023 and 4.77% in January 2025. For those concerned about duration exposures and the valuation impact of higher rates on financial assets in general, real estate credit may offer a useful tool for managing this exposure.
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White papersThe rise of rentership
For decades, the traditional path for many Americans followed a familiar progression: rent early in adulthood, purchase a starter home, and eventually trade up as income and family needs evolved. Today, that pathway is becoming increasingly difficult to follow. Rising housing costs, limited affordability, demographic changes, and evolving lifestyle preferences are reshaping how Americans access housing and, in many cases, extending the period during which they rent.
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White papersU.S. CRE Cycle Monitor: 2Q26 – Recovery Intact
In our mid-year 2026 Global CRE Outlook, we argued that the CRE cycle remains intact despite geopolitical volatility and shifting macro crosscurrents. Our five-signal marketer barometer, that we introduced in May 2026, suggests that the conditions for a sustained momentum remain in place in 2Q26. No single signal is sufficient on its own, but their alignment and sequencing make a compelling case for the direction of commercial real estate.
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White papersWhat a 5% 10-year Treasury means for commercial real estate
As the 10-year Treasury pushes toward 4.75% for the first time since January 2025, investors are asking what it means for U.S. commercial real estate (CRE). Importantly, the reason rates are rising matters as much as the level. What began as an orderly move in real rates and term premium is now giving way to something less benign - rising inflation expectations and a bond market that’s testing the Fed’s resolve. A 10-year yield near 5% raises the bar for CRE, but it sharpens our thesis rather than breaks it: net operating income (NOI) growth and selectivity are what will likely separate winners from the rest.
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White papersCutting through the noise: Why lower and core middle market direct lending still delivers value in clients’ portfolios
Private credit has become one of the most discussed corners of institutional investing — and one of the most misunderstood. Daily headlines about troubled borrowers, struggling business development companies (BDCs), redemption pressure, and concentrated software exposure have created the impression of a market under stress. But beneath the noise, the lower and core middle market direct lending segment that has historically powered investor outcomes is performing well, behaving as designed, and, in our view, is about to deliver one of its most attractive vintages in years.
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White papers2Q26 U.S. Transaction Volumes Rise +14% YoY
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increased in 2Q26, with headline volumes rising +14% YoY to $136.6bn. This represents the ninth consecutive quarter of rising YoY transaction volumes and may help to alleviate concerns of a slowdown given an uncertain macro backdrop.
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White papersA quantitative framework for estimating CRE cycles
The commercial real estate market is at or near a cyclical trough and transitioning into an early-cycle recovery phase, and history says what comes next is long and durable.
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White papersHow U.S. middle market direct lending complements and enhances European portfolios
Direct lending continues to expand across Europe as institutional and sophisticated high-net-worth investors recognize the attractive opportunities available. Demand for private credit, and specifically middle market direct lending, is growing faster than supply, prompting investors to look beyond their domestic markets.
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Research ReportResilient U.S. transaction volumes: +15% YoY in May
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increasing, with headline volumes rising +15% YoY to $42bn. Equally notable, April 2026 was revised meaningfully higher, narrowing that month’s YoY decline to -14%, from -33% previously. As a result, 2Q26-to-date volumes now stand at +0.8% YoY, and YTD volumes are tracking ~20% ahead of the same period last year.
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White papersLending standards hold steady, with early easing at large banks
The Federal Reserve’s newly released Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for April reinforces our view that the CRE lending environment is stable and, in fact, selectively easing, even amid a more volatile macro backdrop. While the headline result points to largely unchanged lending standards, the underlying detail tells a more constructive story.
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White papersReal estate fundamentals remain intact amid geopolitical noise
Geopolitical risk has intensified, but markets are signaling volatility rather than systemic stress, which matters for commercial real estate. So far, the impact has flowed through commodity prices, not a repricing of long-term rates or broader financial conditions, helping preserve valuation support for income-oriented assets.
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White papersREITs at new highs: Early expansion, not the end of the cycle
New market highs are often mistaken for late-cycle signals, but history suggests they more often mark the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. And in real estate market cycles, highs tend to occur not when risk is peaking, but when a prior valuation reset, early recovery dynamics, and strengthening fundamentals start to align.
