Content (139)
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White papersGlobal Market Perspectives, Q4 2024: Hard to be gloomy
Global policymakers have responded to weakening economic growth, raising the odds of a global soft landing.
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White papersFixed income perspectives 4Q 2024: Capturing fixed income opportunities as central banks shift gears
The outlook, themes, and investment implications for global fixed income markets
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White papersEarnings season: Starting from a place of resilience
The third quarter earnings season has begun, and while expectations have tempered since earlier in the year, the corporate sector remains strong, with ample buffers given elevated profit margins and strong balance sheets. With the help of Fed cuts, they are well-positioned to navigate the period ahead even as the economy weakens.
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White papersChina: Is this the “whatever it takes” moment?
China’s recent stimulus measures, including monetary easing and a massive fiscal pledge, have sparked a sharp rally in equities, particularly in real estate and consumer staples. While market sentiment has improved, the long-term impact will hinge on the actual scale and execution of fiscal policy. Investors are cautiously optimistic, but much depends on how effectively China targets its property sector and broader economy.
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White papersSeptember jobs report: Not as weak as once thought?
The September jobs report showed a 254,000 monthly job gain, blowing all estimates out of the water. Not only does it suggest that the U.S. labor market is on a stronger footing than most believed, but it also suggests that the Fed does not need to maintain such an aggressive pace of rate cuts. Market expectations for a 50bps cut in November have rightfully plunged, and a 25bps reduction is now the clear market consensus.
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White papersREITs: On course for a recovery
The onset of the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle is expected to serve as a major catalyst for REITs, boosting valuations as discount rates fall. Historically, REITs have outperformed during similar economic conditions, and sectors with resilient, long-term cash flows are attractive today. Investors seeking real estate exposure should see this period as a compelling opportunity to benefit from REITs’ liquidity and potential for cap rate compression.
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White papersChina’s policy measures: a pivotal week?
China’s policymakers have announced a significant package of easing measures designed to lift China from a state of entrenched economic weakness. Comprehensive monetary policy easing, targeted at supporting the beleaguered real estate market and boosting Chinese equities, has now been rounded out by an impactful pledge to support fiscal spending and stabilize the troubled property sector.
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White papersU.S. Federal Reserve policy decision: securing a soft landing
The Fed’s aggressive 50 basis point rate cut, while unconventional, reflects a proactive approach to stave off any potential economic weakness. Despite associations of such large cuts with crises, today’s economic backdrop remains resilient. With recession risks receding and a favorable historical pattern during non-recessionary rate cutting periods, investors have reasons to remain cautiously optimistic about the market’s near-term outlook.
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White papersFixed income perspectives Q3 2024: A resilient U.S. economy
Despite policy rate cuts remaining elusive, several tailwinds are boosting a resilient U.S. economy. And while the Fed continues to navigate a potential soft landing, global central banks are actively transitioning onto a path of easing policy.
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White papersGlobal Market Perspectives Q3 2024: Losing some of the shine
Global growth has broadened beyond just the U.S. But the limited nature of the upturns implies U.S. dominance remains.
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White papersU.S. Federal Reserve – a close call
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate cutting cycle this Wednesday. Market expectations are split between a 25 basis point and a 50 basis point rate cut, as the decision is complicated by conflicting signals of solid economic activity but a weakening labor market. Rarely have market expectations been so torn, so close to a FOMC meeting.
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White papersFed easing: Fear rate cuts in a recession, not in a soft landing
History suggests that the Fed’s success in piloting a soft versus hard landing will play a key role in dictating the path for U.S. equities. For example, in 1985 and 1995, rate cuts supported strong equity gains as recessions were avoided, while in 2001 and 2007, even aggressive easing couldn’t prevent steep market declines amid economic downturns. Today, the absence of glaring household or corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities means Fed easing should be enough to prevent recession, and should provide investors some optimism for the future of the market.
