Content (253)
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White papersMarkets rebound as geopolitical shocks follow a familiar script
Global equity markets have staged a sharp rebound in recent weeks, delivering their strongest monthly performance in several years. The S&P 500 rose 10.5% in total return terms in April, its best month since November 2020. Additionally, despite persistent pessimism around Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained almost 6%, its strongest month since January 2025, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index soared 15%, its best performance since November 2022.
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White papersApril ECB meeting: In a good position to make the right decision
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) held policy rates steady today, extending its pause for a seventh straight meeting in the current easing cycle. Rates on the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility remain at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively.
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White papersConsumer delinquencies pose limited risks to financial stability
The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a renewed surge in gasoline prices, adding pressure to U.S. consumers already facing the highest credit delinquency rates since the Global Financial Crisis. Combined with a steady rise in consumer credit stress, these developments have heightened concerns that systemic financial vulnerabilities may be emerging, particularly in securitized credit markets. Investor worries have been further heightened by recent high-profile bankruptcies, including U.K. lender MFS in February, and First Brands and Tricolor in 2025.
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White papersGlobal market perspectives 2Q 2026: Hope for the best, ready for the worst
Our quarterly investment outlook highlights the themes and investment implications for the period ahead.
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White papers2Q 2026 Fixed income perspectives
Themes, outlook, and investment implications across global fixed income markets.
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White papersOil prices threaten the tax tailwind
Last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill is set to deliver a powerful fiscal tailwind. Yet this stimulus is at risk of being undermined by higher oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict, as higher energy prices effectively act as a tax increase on households. If crude prices settle around $90 per barrel, they could fully erode the benefits from the OBBBA.
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White papersTech’s resilience amid geopolitical tension masks growing supply‑chain fragilities
Before geopolitics moved to the foreground, AI was the dominant force shaping equity markets. By late last year, however, enthusiasm had begun to fade. Concerns around debt‑funded AI capex, circular investment dynamics among large tech firms, and elevated valuations weighed on sentiment. In February, those worries intensified as rapid AI advances threatened to disrupt incumbent digital business models, triggering a sharp sell‑off and raising questions about whether the long-running tech rally had finally peaked.
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White papersMiddle East conflict: Central bank forecast changes
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated sharply, marked by military exchanges and increasingly confrontational rhetoric. Attacks on key Middle Eastern energy infrastructure have heightened the risk of material supply disruptions, amplifying uncertainty across global markets. While there are tentative signs of de‑escalation—including reports that President Trump has ordered a five‑day pause on planned strikes against Iranian power and energy facilities—the situation remains highly fluid, with risks of retaliation and broader supply‑chain disruption still elevated.
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White papersPrivate credit and real asset debt: resilience through rate normalisation
Private credit, commercial real estate (CRE), infrastructure debt, and middle market direct lending have proved resilient across most rate regimes because performance is anchored in structure, cashflow durability, and disciplined underwriting - not in the direction of policy rates.
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White papersHelping small and mid-sized businesses navigate the current economic landscape
Small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) are being squeezed from all sides. Tariffs are driving up input costs, inflation is eroding margins, and shifting federal and state regulations are adding new layers of complexity. These aren’t abstract trends or distant possibilities; they’re real pressures unfolding in real time, and the forces behind them are reshaping how SMBs operate day to day.
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White papersFebruary CPI report: Calm before the storm
U.S. inflation showed signs of stabilization in the February CPI report, though persistent service and energy pressures suggest that renewed inflation risks could delay the pace of monetary easing.
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White papersMarket implications amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty
Rising geopolitical tensions are increasing market uncertainty, with potential spillovers into energy prices, inflation expectations, and global risk sentiment.
