Content (172)

  • Market volatility Could earnings growth revive the rally

    White papers

    Market volatility: Could earnings growth revive the rally?

    2025-03-21T13:07:00Z

    After a strong rally, markets have turned volatile, with year-to-date declines raising questions about what’s next. For gains to continue, earnings growth must take over—a transition that has historically extended market cycles. While inflation and policy uncertainty risks remain, improving earnings breadth across sectors and industries and potential tailwinds from monetary and fiscal policy could provide support.

  • Is there hope for the market

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    Is there hope for the market?

    2025-03-19T13:10:00Z

    While markets may still have room to grow this year, especially if earnings broaden beyond tech, tight valuations and rising policy uncertainty pose key risks. The path forward likely depends on earnings growth taking over—but missteps in fiscal or trade policy could derail that before it gains traction.

  • Principal Background

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    Navigating opportunities in a higher-for-longer market

    2025-03-18T12:58:00Z

    Today’s landscape offers attractive income opportunities, with elevated real rates and resilient fundamentals supporting diversified sources like dividend equities, real assets, and high-quality bonds.

  • Recession risks Weighing policy uncertainty and market volatility

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    Recession risks: Weighing policy uncertainty and market volatility

    2025-03-14T13:20:00Z

    The U.S. economy faces pressure from tariffs, slower growth, and high valuations, unsettling markets and investors. A recession isn’t inevitable, though—strong consumer and corporate balance sheets and possible Fed support could help. While risks have grown, a recession shouldn’t be seen as the base case, but it also shouldn’t be ruled out.

  • Principal Background

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    Confronting the risk of a policy-driven recession

    2025-03-13T13:01:00Z

    U.S. recession risks have risen amid policy shocks, severe tariff proposals, and elevated uncertainty, all weighing on growth and sentiment. While a slowdown appears likely, resilient fundamentals and potential future support measures suggest a 2025 recession is not yet a foregone conclusion.

  • February CPI report- Not yet in the clear

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    February CPI report: Not yet in the clear

    2025-03-12T12:00:00Z

    The February CPI print was lower than expected, with the monthly increase in both headline and core CPI the smallest since late 2024, bringing annual numbers down to 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. The inflation report will likely deliver a temporary reprieve for markets that have been recently focused on increased stagflation risks. 

  • Global growth prospects and opportunities in 2025

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    Global growth prospects and opportunities in 2025

    2025-03-11T14:58:00Z

    “One of the key things that we are expecting for 2025 is the announcement of tariffs–not just announcement but, actually, enforcement of those tariffs. The likelihood is that a number of tariffs for certain countries is going to be very, very significant.”

  • February jobs report- A sanguine number… for now

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    February jobs report: A sanguine number… for now

    2025-03-07T12:19:00Z

    The February jobs report showed a 151,000-worker increase in payrolls, broadly in line with consensus expectations, defying fears of significant cracks in the labor market. Yet, while the worst fears were not met, the report did confirm that the labor market is cooling. Furthermore, with no shortage of headwinds confronting the U.S. economy, including federal government layoffs, public spending cuts, and tariff uncertainty-related inertia, the softening trend will likely persist and potentially deepen in the coming months.

  • Trade tensions- Navigating market risks

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    Trade tensions: Navigating market risks

    2025-03-07T12:13:00Z

    Escalating trade tensions are injecting fresh volatility into markets. The U.S. trade deficit, which remains sizable with key partners like China, Mexico, and Europe, underscores the stakes in ongoing trade disputes. However, while tariffs could increase costs and disrupt supply chains, history suggests that markets adapt over time. A well-diversified portfolio remains the best defense against short-term uncertainty. 

  • March ECB meeting- Data dependence in a world of uncertainty

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    March ECB meeting: Data dependence in a world of uncertainty

    2025-03-06T12:57:00Z

    As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rates today for the sixth time in this cycle, marking its fifth straight cut. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility were each lowered by 25 basis points to 2.65%, 2.90%, and 2.50%, respectively.

  • Equity markets- Nearing a peak or more room to run?

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    Equity markets: Nearing a peak or more room to run?

    2025-02-21T13:00:00Z

    While investors are increasingly concerned about whether markets have peaked, bull markets don’t just die of old age. History suggests that the Fed plays an outsized role in determining market returns based on its monetary policy stance. While today’s macro environment doesn’t resemble previous market peaks, and there remains a path for further market upside, policy uncertainty poses a significant challenge to sustaining bullish sentiment.

  • Is the U.S. equity market peaking?

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    Is the U.S. equity market peaking?

    2025-02-20T13:03:00Z

    Is the U.S. equity market peaking? Following double-digit returns for U.S. equities over the past two years, and with valuations now incredibly expensive, investors have become increasingly concerned about whether the equity market rally still has further to run or if markets have peaked.