Content (269)
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White papersWhen safe isn’t safe
Artificial intelligence is real, powerful, and beginning to reshape the economy. What is yet to be determined, however, is whether financial markets have pulled forward too much of this future too quickly, and into too narrow a set of stocks. As AI becomes the dominant market narrative, the distinction between revolutionary technology and durable investment return rarely mattered more.
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White papersFixed income: Resilient, but more selective
Fixed income enters the second half of the year in a relatively strong position, though the path forward has become less certain. Yields remain attractive, and fundamentals are broadly stable, but tighter spreads and shifting policy expectations are leaving less room for surprises. The result is a market that still offers opportunity, but one where outcomes are increasingly shaped by how well investors navigate changing conditions rather than broad market trends.
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White papersJune FOMC meeting: A new era for the Fed
At its June meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting.
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White papersThe growing role of capex in inflation dynamics
Last week’s inflation report, and expectations of a U.S.-Iran agreement, have eased inflation concerns. However, the inflation outlook is not defined by oil dynamics alone. AI capex, combined with rising global expenditures on defense and energy security, is reinforcing demand for commodities, suggesting a durable capex cycle could lift producer costs and put upward pressure on inflation in the near term. Against this backdrop, investors can seek thematic exposure while building resilience against inflation.
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White papersMay CPI report: War impact remains contained, allowing the Fed to stay on hold
Today’s inflation report reflects ongoing price pressures tied to the Middle East conflict, though the impact remains relatively contained. Headline inflation, primarily driven by energy, rose 0.5% in May, as expected, lifting the annual rate to 4.2%, the highest in over three years. However, inflation concerns were eased by goods deflation and a lower-than-expected Core CPI reading of 0.2%. Even so, the fluid situation in the Middle East suggests the risk of higher energy prices for longer, along with second-round inflation impacts, persists.
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White papersRethinking diversification in a tightly linked global market
Despite the S&P 500’s resilience amid the Middle East conflict, its concentration remains a concern, underscoring the importance of diversification. However, achieving diversification has become more challenging as global markets remain interconnected through AI supply chains, reducing regional differentiation. At the same time, regions most exposed to the Middle East conflict have lost their appeal as effective diversifiers. Against this backdrop, investors must reassess their approach, with a focus on differentiated and independent growth drivers to build more resilient portfolios.
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White papersWhy positive surprise matters in small-cap growth
In small-cap growth, returns are driven less by current earnings and more by shifts in long-term expectations. Because valuations hinge on those expectations, when a company delivers results or provides signals that exceed consensus expectations, even small upward revisions can have an outsized impact on both earnings and valuations. For investors, recognizing these inflections early is critical in a segment where markets often underreact.
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White papersA deal with Iran will not push the Fed to cut policy rates
A U.S.–Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appears to be moving closer. If implemented, it would restore energy flows and begin to unwind the largest supply disruption in history. Current reports suggest that reopening the Strait would trigger a 60-day negotiation phase focused on Iran’s nuclear program, so the path forward is not yet free of implementation risk.
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White papersFive dynamics shaping today’s investment landscape
Geopolitical risk, consumer strain, AI, policy limits, and the changing role of the United States are all shaping global markets. Markets are adapting to a regime shift in which macro, policy, and technology are colliding more directly—and more quickly—than investors have been used to. This set of five articles draws on Seema Shah’s (Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management) discussion of the “five dynamics” shaping today’s investment landscape, translating those dynamics into practical frameworks for portfolio decision-making.
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White papersRisk assets face off with rising global bond yields
The recent interest rate turmoil has driven long‑dated government bond yields to notable historical extremes, with U.S. 30-year yields hitting their highest level since 2007, 30-year JGBs since their introduction in 1999, UK gilts since 1997, and German bunds since 2011. Yet, simultaneously, equities have absorbed the rise in yields without too much damage, supported by a strong earnings environment. That resilience should not be taken for granted, however, as the balance of risks is becoming increasingly finely poised.
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White papersRising global bond yields: The test for risk assets
Global bond markets have sold off sharply in recent weeks, pushing long-end yields to multi-decade highs across major markets. U.S. 30-year yields hit their highest level since 2007, 30-year JGBs since their introduction in 1999, UK gilts since 1997, and German bunds since 2011.
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White papersWarsh appointment: Inflation sets the early agenda
Kevin Warsh’s tenure as Federal Reserve chair begins amid heightened market scrutiny as investors grapple with renewed inflationary pressure. Stronger‑than‑expected April CPI reinforces the case for patience, even as the new chair has expressed comfort looking through one‑off price pressures. However, the Fed’s consensus decision‑making structure and the drift of core inflation away from target both suggest policymakers may hold off on cuts and keep policy unchanged longer than anticipated. For investors, the risk is rising that it will be 2027 before they see any further policy easing from the Fed.
