Content (167)
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White papersFebruary CPI report: Not yet in the clear
The February CPI print was lower than expected, with the monthly increase in both headline and core CPI the smallest since late 2024, bringing annual numbers down to 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. The inflation report will likely deliver a temporary reprieve for markets that have been recently focused on increased stagflation risks.
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VideoGlobal growth prospects and opportunities in 2025
“One of the key things that we are expecting for 2025 is the announcement of tariffs–not just announcement but, actually, enforcement of those tariffs. The likelihood is that a number of tariffs for certain countries is going to be very, very significant.”
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White papersFebruary jobs report: A sanguine number… for now
The February jobs report showed a 151,000-worker increase in payrolls, broadly in line with consensus expectations, defying fears of significant cracks in the labor market. Yet, while the worst fears were not met, the report did confirm that the labor market is cooling. Furthermore, with no shortage of headwinds confronting the U.S. economy, including federal government layoffs, public spending cuts, and tariff uncertainty-related inertia, the softening trend will likely persist and potentially deepen in the coming months.
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White papersTrade tensions: Navigating market risks
Escalating trade tensions are injecting fresh volatility into markets. The U.S. trade deficit, which remains sizable with key partners like China, Mexico, and Europe, underscores the stakes in ongoing trade disputes. However, while tariffs could increase costs and disrupt supply chains, history suggests that markets adapt over time. A well-diversified portfolio remains the best defense against short-term uncertainty.
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White papersMarch ECB meeting: Data dependence in a world of uncertainty
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rates today for the sixth time in this cycle, marking its fifth straight cut. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility were each lowered by 25 basis points to 2.65%, 2.90%, and 2.50%, respectively.
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White papersEquity markets: Nearing a peak or more room to run?
While investors are increasingly concerned about whether markets have peaked, bull markets don’t just die of old age. History suggests that the Fed plays an outsized role in determining market returns based on its monetary policy stance. While today’s macro environment doesn’t resemble previous market peaks, and there remains a path for further market upside, policy uncertainty poses a significant challenge to sustaining bullish sentiment.
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White papersIs the U.S. equity market peaking?
Is the U.S. equity market peaking? Following double-digit returns for U.S. equities over the past two years, and with valuations now incredibly expensive, investors have become increasingly concerned about whether the equity market rally still has further to run or if markets have peaked.
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VideoThe state of fixed income in 2025
Michael Goosay - Chief Investment Officer, Global Fixed Income
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White papersTrump’s impact on the labor market: Quick takes on capital markets
The Trump administration’s bold policy initiatives to increase government efficiency and tighten immigration will likely have macroeconomic consequences for the labor market, potentially weighing on labor demand and supply. However, the combined effect will likely also be very nuanced, suggesting the data over the coming months will be difficult to parse and understand, making policymaking even more challenging for the Fed.
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White papersKeep an eye on your tech stocks
Investors have a decent record in ignoring warning signs. In the wake of any big market sell-off, legions of sages have tended to pop up and lament, after the fact, that “the warning signs were there.” Yet the lead-up to each of these reverses has usually been a period of carefree investor exuberance. In other words, if the signs really were there, very few people were paying attention.
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White papersTrump 2.0: Impact of tariffs on growth and inflation
The new Trump administration’s opening salvo in the trade war represents a significant shock to growth that could potentially plunge Mexico and Canada into a deep recession while exacerbating the malaise in China. If tariffs are implemented, U.S. growth would likely to be negatively impacted, and inflation could accelerate in the near-term. The greatest market risk likely lies in policy unpredictability, making diversification essential for managing portfolio risk and seizing investment opportunities.
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White papersGlobal preferred and capital securities remain attractive
Credit outlook: Remains stable, underscored by a robust U.S. economy
