China’s upcoming National Congress and the outlook for investors

China’s biggest political event this year, the 19th National Congress, takes place in October or November. In the run-up to the event, the government is maintaining a stable stance that should minimise risk and support investor appetite. A more centralised government may emerge post-congress, creating opportunities for investment in corporates that could benefit from the state’s reform agenda.

At the congress, China’s Communist Party will announce appointments to its Politburo Standing Committee. This is followed by a nationwide reshuffle, first of ministers and senior central government officials, and then of lower-level local government officials. Xi Jinping will certainly remain President of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party. Little visibility exists about other roles, though. We will probably see a government with more centralised power than in previous decades.

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