Content (16)
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White papersPitfalls & Mitigants of Climate Assessment Software
Physical climate risk incorporates two broad hazard categorizations: acute and chronic. Climate risk software and analysis tools typically forecast each hazard individually and across multiple timeframes and scenarios.
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White papersRelative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2024
We are not expecting a U.S. recession in 2024. We are looking for credit spreads to remain rangebound in the near future, and we prefer high carry while considering downside risks. Consumers and housing fundamentals continued to be solid, while CLOs fundamentals weakened further. Commercial real estate fundamentals are stable, but performance divergences are wide. We are neutral for both corporate equity and cash investments.
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White papersAre We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE
Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024.
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White papersReal Estate Debt: Navigating the New Frontier
The Fed’s campaign against inflation, changes in bank regulations and stress in the office sector have collectively created an attractive investment environment for real estate debt investors, in our view. Commercial mortgages are offering yields not seen since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While capital market conditions are operating effectively for low-risk mortgages, they remain mostly dislocated for higher-risk mortgages, thereby presenting compelling investment opportunities.
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White papersDecarbonization Metrics for Real Estate Investment: Goal Setting for a Portfolio in the Context of Absolute vs. Intensity Metrics
While there is not a one-size-fits-all approach to track progress toward reducing emissions, due to the complexities of real estate portfolios, we believe intensity-based metrics offer a more flexible and reliable method for tracking decarbonization progress than absolute targets for reasons discussed in this paper.
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White papersThe Case for a U.S. Productivity Boom
The economy in any single year is subject to the vagaries of chance and, as such, can be “noisy”. Near-term volatility that exerts short-term stress into markets may be front of mind for most investors, but it is long-term trends that provide us with the best view of the future, especially for those with long investment horizons.
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White papersAre Consumers Weakening?
Our baseline forecast continues to incorporate a recession as we remain cautious about the economy. Although aggregate economic and labor market indicators continue to be strong, we are concerned about high consumer loan delinquencies, creeping unemployment, and affordability, all of which are potential headwinds to growth.
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White papersGateway Markets and Core Property Types: Not What They Used to Be
Two commonly used categorizations of commercial real estate investing that emerged or became formalized in the late 1980s and early 1990s include “gateway markets” and “core property types.” They largely help institutional investors like pensions and sovereign wealth funds to understand the types of investments that could have the best liquidity, transparency and expected stable returns.
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White papersU.S. Real Estate Market Outlook: Lifting Fog
At the start of 2023, economists believed there was a 63% probability that a recession would occur during the year (many estimated that the U.S. was already in a recession). The path of inflation was uncertain, as was the impact of higher interest rates on consumers and U.S. businesses. The war in Ukraine was also relatively new, causing heightened geopolitical uncertainty and energy market volatility, further pressuring economic growth.
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White papersIs This What a Soft Landing Looks Like?
The first half of 2023 was a whipsaw of economic and real estate data that turned from gloomy to bright and back again, seemingly by the day. As the fog lifts from this noisy backdrop, we believe the case for a soft landing has become more pronounced.
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White papersGreening the Grid: A Tipping Point in U.S. Renewable Energy Production
While demand for renewable energy is on the rise, and the grid continues to “green,” procurement, transmission and accounting of renewable resources is expected to evolve.
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White papersNavigating Uncertainty— Risks and Opportunities in Commercial Real Estate
Rapid shifts in the global economic and capital markets are exerting strong influences on U.S. commercial real estate.
