Content (128)
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White papersTrumponomics to provide new twists in 2025
The US election and the radical economic programme President-elect Donald Trump has promised to implement will heavily influence macroeconomic developments in 2025. While much of the course of the year from an economic perspective is largely baked in, reflecting the existing momentum (or lack of) of the major economies, ‘Trumponomics’ will affect all and provide new twists.
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White papersThe Head of Macro Research view: Trump-starting the global economy
Two major policy uncertainties lie at the heart of the global outlook for 2025 and 2026. The first is the extent that US President-elect Donald Trump translates campaign promises into policy. Our view is that he will not fully deliver what he suggested on tariff increases, migrant deportations or fiscal loosening. However, we anticipate enough delivery to materially impact US growth as these policies bite into 2026.
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White papersThe CIO view: Shifts in the balance of risk and return
US President-elect Donald Trump’s radical policy agenda has created some financial market uncertainty, in terms of the outlook for investment returns. Nevertheless, we believe the central macroeconomic outlook remains favourable for bonds and equities. Growth, stable inflation and lower interest rates should support markets. But investment decisions need to consider cashflow resilience and valuations, given policy risks and broader concerns. For now, we don’t expect a recession in 2025 which should help deliver positive equity returns, while credit markets should provide attractive income opportunities.
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White papersThe Chief Economist view: Divergence
2025 may be characterised by divergence across the world’s main economic regions, around three dimensions: underlying growth, fiscal policy, and monetary policy.
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White papersOutlook 2025: Highlights and investment implications
Two major uncertainties lie at the heart of the global economic and investment outlook - to what extent will US President-elect Donald Trump translate campaign promises into policy and how successful will China be in reigniting its economy?
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White papersAXA IM US election reaction: what Trump’s win means for markets and investors
At the time of writing (midday on Wednesday, 6 November), former President Donald Trump has won the 2024 US presidential election. In a much quicker than expected result, Trump currently has 279 Electoral College votes versus 223 for his opponent Kamala Harris. Trump has been declared winner in the key swing states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This rules out Harris’ path to victory.
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White papersWill COP29 be an enabling COP?
The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 comes at a unique point in time.
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White papersFollowing a bumper 2024, what’s next for the US economy and market?
The US has dominated financial markets this year. The economy has been stronger than expected with GDP growth running at an annualised rate of 3.0% in the second quarter (Q2).
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White papersLooking across ETF fixed income markets
For ETF fixed income investors, 2024 continues to be a positive year: most companies have managed to weather a backdrop of macro uncertainty; investors have continued to have access to attractive levels of yield; inflation, while sticky, has been moving in the right direction. Meanwhile, the volatility experienced at the start of August proved to be a storm in a teacup.
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White papersWhat the Fed’s rate cut means for US high yield
The US high yield (HY) market reacted positively to the 50 basis points (‘bps’) rate cut delivered by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
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White papersUS 2024 presidential election: The potential global impact
Before the summer we reviewed the upcoming presidential election and its likely impact on the US economy. At that time, President Joe Biden had just bowed out of the race and been replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris. Former President Donald Trump initially led Harris by a modest amount in overall polling approvals, though by less than he had led Biden. Since then, Harris has seen an improvement in ratings. Rising from a deficit of 1.7 points, she now leads Trump by 2 points.
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White papersThe perfect storm: Deglobalisation’s headwinds
Globalisation - the rising interconnection of the world’s economies and populations, driven by international trade in technology, services, goods as well as the flow of investment and information - is facing at least five different head winds. Let me discuss them in turn and indicate how I believe they could be tackled.
