Almost certainly, either the SPD – if its recent surge in the polls is to be trusted – or the conservative CDU/CSU will come first in terms of votes and seats, unless the Greens manage an unexpected comeback. However, as has happened in previous elections, no party will secure a majority in the Bundestag by itself. Polls indicate that for the first time a three-party coalition will be required to form a majority government.
The need for three parties may add to the complexity of coalition-forming negotiations, for which there is no formal process. Things could settle quickly or could take weeks or even months (negotiations for the current government majority took several months in 2017-18).
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