The Brexit-related newsflow since the UK/EU agreement on 25 November 2018 has been quite intense. In our view, it has slightly increased the probability that the UK remains in the EU beyond March 2019, thus prolonging the uncertainty over how (and even whether) Brexit will happen.
Investment views: Regarding the markets, at the moment, they continue to price in some sort of weak muddle-through scenario. As uncertainties around Brexit outcomes remain high, sterling will likely continue to be under pressure, with some downside risks remaining (especially vs the Japanese yen), given the increasing probability of no deal.
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