The 30th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP30) is likely to deliver incremental rather than transformative progress, as most countries remain misaligned with the Paris Agreement and net-zero pathways.
Key takeaways
- Climate finance for emerging markets remains the largest gap in meeting Paris Agreement goals; any significant advances here could influence growth prospects.
- Global policy is likely to centre on adaptation and resilience, influencing sovereign creditworthiness and creating new investable sectors in infrastructure and technology.
- Additional capital will most likely fund power, transport, industrial decarbonisation, water systems, HVAC and cooling, grid resilience and climate risk software initiatives.
Conference expectations
- COP30 is unlikely to deliver full investment-ready national transition plans, as most countries remain misaligned with the Paris Agreement and net-zero targets. Uneven ambition—especially from major emitters such as the US and China—as well as economic and geopolitical constraints are elevating policy uncertainty and transition risk.
- Climate finance for emerging markets (EMs) remains the single largest gap to meeting Paris Agreement goals; any significant movement in resolving this gap at the Belém conference could influence growth prospects.
- Adaptation and resilience will likely move to the centre of global policy, influencing sovereign creditworthiness and creating new investable sectors in infrastructure and technology.
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