In a turbulent 2025 dominated by US trade policy shocks and geopolitical tensions, the global economy proved resilient. Fears of tariff-related slowdown and renewed inflation proved misplaced, as growth surprised to the upside and inflation continued to soften. The improving backdrop underpinned a strong year for financial markets. Equities, commodities, credit and duration all generated healthy returns, and diversification once again delivered meaningful benefits after several challenging years.

As the year progressed, investor attention shifted from trade tensions to more fundamental questions about the durability of growth, elevated valuations and the forces shaping the next phase of the market cycle. These questions are central to our outlook. US equity valuations are elevated, credit spreads remain tight and record capex on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is climbing. Markets are increasingly focused on whether these investments can produce broad productivity gains and earnings growth—and whether concentration can give way to a more durable, diversified expansion.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below