- White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - May 2024
Monthly Cross Asset - Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
- White papers
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - May 2024
“We expect 75 bps of rate cuts in 2024 as monetary policy remains restrictive, growth will slow down, and inflation data do not alter our projections.”
- White papers
IMF spring meeting take-aways: short-term resilience, but no reacceleration in the mid term
In recent months, the IMF and other economic forecasters have raised their growth projections for 2024. The April World Economic Outlook showed revisions (+0.3% Global) that primarily affected the US, China and Emerging Markets (EM). These revisions were based on expectations of less economic scarring from the recent crisis, insufficient fiscal adjustment supporting short-term growth and less effective monetary policy transmission compared to the past.
- White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2024
Topic of the Month: IMF spring meeting take-aways: short-term resilience, but no reacceleration in the mid term
- Podcast
Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Bright spots in a trickier phase?
The uncertainties faced by financial markets over the recent months have been making forecaster’s lives difficult. The two big questions over growth and inflation continue to preoccupy. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss what’s been catching their attention over the past month and how these factors are influencing projections.
- White papers
Global Investment Views - May 2024
Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading us and various institutions including the IMF to revise up US growth. We see the current strong momentum to continue into Q2 but expect a deceleration in H2, without negative growth in any quarter.
- White papers
Emerging markets are gaining interest
“In the search for equity opportunities, Emerging Markets may offer appealing valuations and exposure to long-term growth opportunities.”
- White papers
Modeling Direct and Indirect Climate-related Physical Risks
This paper addresses the methodological challenges in quantifying physical risks associated with climate change, proposing a novel top-down stochastic approach focused on modeling financial losses from extreme events. Unlike existing studies limited to specific events, our approach utilizes predefined climate sensitivity parameters, enabling a broader application across various extreme events using the example of tropical cyclones.
- White papers
Climate investing is an opportunity for Emerging Markets
Climate pathways are integral to economic and market expectations, and investors must increasingly focus their attention on the impact of the energy and climate transitions, particularly in Emerging Markets (EM). Last year’s record-breaking temperatures were a stark reminder that the global economic landscape is undergoing profound shifts; 2023 was the hottest year on record, with average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels.
- White papers
Hedge Fund Outlook H2 2024
Hedge Funds (HF) are up 4.2% year-to-date as of March 2024, which compares well with diversified global allocations, including 40/60 Equity/Bond portfolios which are up around +2.2% and have higher volatility. HF performance year-to-date was led by CTAs, EM focused and L/S Equity both Directional and Neutral. Overall, the HF industry continued to produce very strong alpha, up an estimated 6%+ y/y.