Outlooks – Page 14
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White papersA Second Trump Presidency? Potential Economic Effects
President Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. When the incumbent presidential party presides over an improvement in the unemployment rate, it is likely to be returned to power. With unemployment at historic lows, unemployment is likely to get worse, creating headwinds for a Biden re-election.
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White papers2024’s elections around the world: The who’s who and the so what…
Voters from more than 60 countries will head to the polls this year, representing almost half the world’s population. This makes 2024 perhaps the ultimate election year by historical standards. But the act of merely holding elections does not guarantee a free and fair process e.g., Russia’s March elections, nor does it imply consequential change.
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White papersOpportunities in preferred and capital securities remain attractive
Main takeaways: the Federal Reserve (Fed) should be done raising rates; the U.S. Treasury market term premium should persist; discounted fixed-to-refixed hybrids foster an advantage of indifference to the direction of longer-term treasury rates; and relative values are attractive.
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White papersQuarterly fixed income perspectives 1Q 2024: A turning point for policy
Themes, outlook, and investment implications across global fixed income markets
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White papersPrivate assets for the masses: An interview with PEI on the democratization of private equity
The democratization of private equity continues to be a hot-button issue. What were the biggest developments over the last 12 months?
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White papersETF investing – How AI and 3D printing are shaping the future of healthcare
Genomic engineering is the manipulation of an organism’s genes by introducing, eliminating or rearranging specific genes using the methods of modern molecular biology. The technology will enable the analysis of patients’ DNA, and the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. And what’s good for patients can also be interesting for investors.
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White papersSun setting on the tightening cycle
The Fed has removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
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White papersEOS 2023 Annual Review
EOS publishes 2023 Annual Review, with full engagement and voting highlights.
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White papersThe Importance of Monitoring Credit Spreads In Positioning Equity Portfolios
On February 5, 2024, the yield spread between the Baa corporate bond and the 10-year Treasury bond sat at 157 bps—just 9 bps wider than the narrowest level seen since 2000.
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White papersListed infrastructure: Factors aligning for renewed investor attention
We believe an attractive entry point for listed infrastructure is emerging, considering the potentially favorable macro environment and the asset class’s attractive valuations relative to broader equities.
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White papersExpert Aggregation for Financial Forecasting
Machine learning algorithms dedicated to financial time series forecasting have gained a lot of interest. But choosing between several algorithms can be challenging, as their estimation accuracy may be unstable over time. Online aggregation of experts combine the forecasts of a finite set of models in a single approach without making any assumption about the models.
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White papersWhat is keeping rates volatility high?
Volatility in fixed income markets remains elevated while it has normalised almost everywhere else. In this weekly edition of Simply put, we ask why has bond volatility remained stubbornly high?
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White papersRobust Jobs and Tight Credit: Will the Consumer Keep Spending?
Economic reports have been promising so far this year, with consumers shored up by a robust job market. An alien (one that has studied intergalactic macroeconomics) landing on Earth might even wonder why the Federal Reserve isn’t hiking rates given above-2% inflation and low unemployment.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2024
Topic of the Month - Japan equity: top performer in 2023; remains attractive option for 2024
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White papersFour things to watch ahead of the US elections
This is the biggest election year in world history. Seventy-six countries — home to roughly 4.4 billion people — will hold political contests in 2024.
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White papersPrivate Equity Outlook - 2024
“Going into 2024, we believe the record-high dry powder reserves suggest potential for significant PE activity as values slowly recover and conditions improve…”
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White papers2024 Emerging market fixed income outlook: Back with a vengeance
Upon entering a New Year, we find ourselves in a somewhat similar market situation as the end of last year, still hoping for better times for global fixed income assets amid legacy pressures from tight global liquidity, high policy rates, and a strong USD.
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White papersCapital market assumptions: 2024
Our 2024 expectations for annualised returns over the next 20 years (what we call our capital market assumptions) are a mixed bag. Strong gains across markets over the past year have tempered our expected returns for equities relative to our 2023 outlook. On the other hand, higher starting yields translate into improved expectations versus last year across many fixed income asset classes.
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White papersMulti-Asset Outlook 2024: Embracing the “Less Exceptional”
After pandemic-era extremes, growth and inflation should approach historical averages in 2024. Here’s how multi-asset investors can respond.
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White papersThe Year Ahead for the Major Industry Sectors, Part 1
The first of two Perspectives outlining some of the key themes we think will drive the major industry sectors in 2024.
