Outlooks – Page 121
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White papersItaly: Troubled waters and complex challenges ahead but no Italexit on the roadmap!
In just a few days, investors have shifted from perhaps excessive complacency to excess pessimism about Italian politics.
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White papersItaly: Fundamentals are the compass amid political twists
A new Government: After three months of deadlock, 5Star Movement and the League agreed on a redesigned Government formation.
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White papersPolitical Event Risk Raises Stakes for Sudden Price Moves
Major political event risk, ranging from elections in Mexico, Brazil and the U.S., to Brexit and NAFTA negotiations, could swing equity, bond, FX and ags markets.
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White papersFrance: Significant promises kept, but the most crucial reforms will take time
One year on from his election victory the French president has already lived up to some of his campaign promises, most visibly regarding labour market regulation and taxation, actions that have generally been welcomed by international financial commentators.
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White papersHow to play the oil price swings
Oil price: We confirm our target price for the next 12 months in the range of $60-70 per barrel.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value: Q2 2018
Even modest upward interest rate adjustments can be disruptive to risk markets when they collide with slowing economic growth, shifting monetary regimes, and geopolitical shocks.
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White papersItaly towards new elections
On May 27th, the designated Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave up his mandate to form a Government.
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White papersAlternative Risk Premia: What You Need To Know
Long bull markets in both equities and bonds have rewarded investors for backing traditional risk premia—notably the equity risk premium, the term premium and the credit premium.
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White papersSeeking to enhance diversification? Time to explore currency strategies
Forex strategies rely on a portfolio manager’s ability to exploit differences in the relative values of the world’s major currencies. To do this, specialists combine fundamental analysis and quantitative models to identify the currencies that seem over- or undervalued.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: June 2018
We have entered into a regime of diminished returns. Sensitivity to news flow is, and will continue to be, very high, as markets try to adjust to new financial and economic conditions.
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White papersProfit trend and cycle analysis: a long-medium-short term sanity check
Profits fluctuations are often related to the economic business cycle as they are a crucial driver for investment decisions and ultimately are an important engine for economic growth.
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White papersItalian political transition following unclear paths. Wise to wait and see
The political situation in Italy is still uncertain, with some indication, but no formal appointment of the Prime Minister. We may witness a somewhat unusual state of affairs over the next few days, a sort of “technical government” of no parliamentary extraction, subject to a political contract.
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White papersU.S. Pullout of Iran Nuclear Deal: What Next for Oil, Business?
The United States has pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in a move that could have wide-ranging implications for oil markets, trade and the Middle East peace process. Read about the potential impacts.
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White papersAn Update on our Local Market Resilience Scores
In June 2016, we released Global Macro Shifts1 (issue 5) – Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities [GMS-5]. This paper discussed many of the risks and opportunities across emerging markets while highlighting the importance of assessing economic resiliencies in individual countries. Since then we have seen notable rallies in emerging economies as capital has returned to a number of undervalued markets, particularly during 2017.
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White papersFed vs. ECB. Towards a stronger decoupling of monetary policies?
US and European economies both continue to expand but at different paces. While US growth will likely pick up this year, boosted by an expansionist fiscal policy, the Eurozone cycle probably peaked last year.
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White papersThe inflation pendulum
It’s not good to have too much or too little inflation, but trying to get a huge pendulum the size of the US economy to settle in the middle is very difficult.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2018
While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.
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White papersRussia: the fundamental story is intact, sanctions pose downside risks
The outlook for the Russian economy is positive, supported by expansive monetary policy, robust global trade and increasing oil price, even though the current context has deteriorated on the back of the last round of sanctions.
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White papersEconomic Insights: April 2018
What happens after a crisis? A return to normal. The world economic expansion, now two years old, remains intact, albeit with modest deceleration outside the United States.
