Outlooks – Page 116
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White papersStaying Nimble Amid an Uncertain Outlook
Our CIOs’ Global Investment Outlook highlights what shocks could affect the market and where they see opportunities.
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Are High Yield Investors Being Compensated for Risks?
In the context of today’s fundamental backdrop and default outlook, spread levels suggest investors are being fairly compensated, relative to other points in the cycle, for the amount of risk they are taking.
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White papersBeyond ESG risk integration: Impact investing
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investment is taking root within the infrastructure investment community. Infrastructure assets have the potential to bring strong social, environmental and economic benefits to society but they are also particularly exposed to ESG risks. Most investment firms active in the space have by now implemented ESG considerations in their investment process.
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White papersWhat are insurance-linked securities and how do they work?
A challenging environment for traditional asset classes means less correlated assets - like insurance-linked securities – are in higher demand. How do they work?
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White papersLeaders’ Perspectives: Quarterly – Autumn 2019
In the Autumn 2019 issue of the Leader’s Perspectives:
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White papersFive charts that will make you think differently about retirement
Retiring at 60 is a relatively new concept, and possibly a short-lived one in our history. As populations age – and age better – people are looking at a host of ways to stay in work and sustain their retirement income. We present five charts that sum up the changing landscape.
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White papersItalian politics take centre stage
The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call for fresh elections.
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White papersArgentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook
Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.
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White papersArgentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks
Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.
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White papersUS-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope
Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019
We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed economies in 2020. It could subsequently decrease below potential in 2021 driven by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth should stay in positive territory.
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White papersEmerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019
The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.
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White papersGlobal Asset Class Spotlights - Top Down Quaterly Assessment
Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.
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White papersSeek High Yield Opportunities, but be aware of liquidity conditions
Speculative grade bonds have been among the major beneficiaries of the rapid turn of both Fed and ECB monetary policy stances to much more dovish positions. Lower rates for longer and more synchronised easing mean much lower funding costs and easier financial conditions for HY companies, which, as we know, are more sensitive than IG companies to the absolute levels of nominal and real rates.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2019
The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets. But, it is difficult to see such improvements happening in the short term.
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White papers2019 midyear outlook - Expect a tougher climb
Trade and other geopolitical issues are heating up. Economic growth is looking more uncertain and market volatility rising. Expect a tougher climb in 2019.
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White papersWhat do negative interest rates mean for investors?
With interest rates falling sharply, even more sectors of the global bond market are trading in negative territory. We explain what this means for investors, offer perspective on where markets may be headed and suggest strategies to position portfolios to preserve income and protect against losses.
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White papersMidyear Bond Outlook: Making Sense of Conflicting Signals
The first half of 2019 was kind to financial markets. Will the good times keep on rolling? In our view, that will depend on whether loosening monetary policy is still an effective way to boost growth.
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White papersThe FED and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accomodative monetary policy support growth?
The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation
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White papersHedge Fund Strategy Outlook Q3 2019
Changing rate environment, heterogeneity within Europe, and a combination of broad macro factors and idiosyncratic situations should create opportunities.
