Credit markets entered 2026 on a solid footing, but the landscape has since shifted significantly. What began as a year of macro optimism was tested by two successive shocks: AI-driven disruptions to private credit, and latterly, the Middle East conflict which reignited stagflation fears. However, despite this backdrop, the asset class has demonstrated notable resilience.
On 17 April, with the Iranian regime having confirmed US President Donald Trump’s claim that negotiations were indeed ongoing in a bid to put an end to the Middle East conflict, we increased our equity exposure to its maximum overweight.
Global markets are being shaped by a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop, with rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz adding to volatility across rates, credit and equities. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, about how the team is interpreting the latest moves in macro and bond market volatility, and what this means for portfolio allocation.