Outlooks – Page 21
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Under the Macroscope: China’s consumption triangle—a possible trinity
China’s domestic consumption will be the biggest upside opportunity for overall growth performance in the next six to 12 months, according to Franklin Templeton Institute Investment Strategist Christy Tan.
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White papers
No Country Thrives on an Empty Stomach
In this follow-up on EM vulnerability to rising food prices and political instability, we update our analysis on food prices and incorporate countries’ unemployment numbers using a misery index.
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Fixed Income Views: The bill comes due
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income forecasts only a short, shallow recession in the US and the euro area (EA) narrowly avoiding one, but sluggish growth ahead. Fixed Income Views presents the team’s second-quarter 2023 outlook.
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White papers
Wait-and-See Characterizes Mood of CLO Market
As concerns about the banking sector add to continuing macroeconomic uncertainty, the CLO market finds itself largely becalmed as participants await clearer signs of the market’s future direction.
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Private assets views Q2 2023 - Navigating the downturn
A regular update from our private assets business, that includes detailed thoughts on the risks and opportunities emerging in each private asset class.
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Mass timber: wood buildings as a climate solution
Mass timber is a category of engineered wood products designed for structural applications.
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Japan: Engaging equity opportunities in the land of the rising sun
For active stock pickers, Japanese equities could offer opportunities that are otherwise potentially hiding in plain sight. As corporate governance continues to evolve in Japan, and the doors open to a more shareholder-friendly environment, culturally aware investors who have earned the right to engage may be able to add value and unlock latent potential in the country’s stock market.
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White papers
Emissions trading: the market overlooks UK cap reforms
The commitment to strengthening – and potentially expanding – the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is instrumental in achieving the country’s net-zero goals and enhancing opportunities for carbon investors. But the necessity of a robust ETS, confirmed recently in Whitehall’s “Powering up Britain” strategy, has been overlooked amid the media’s focus on the lack of green-industry incentives.
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Trump indictment: implications for US politics and assets
”The US political environment is highly polarised on Trump’s indictment, with some seeing this as being politically motivated.”
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White papers
A period of change: emerging markets and Asia
After nearly a decade in the wilderness for emerging markets, we must ask ourselves, is this a dawn of a new era? Is this the decade for emerging markets?
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White papers
Why India: investing in the Indian subcontinent
Investment returns in the subcontinent have been Index returns since 31 December 1992 primarily driven by India since she liberalised her economy in 1991.
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Emerging market equities – navigating a bumpy but attractive route
In 1990, developed markets accounted for just over 60% of global GDP and emerging markets for just under 40%.
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Global Macro Outlook - Second Quarter 2023
Besides inflation and tight monetary policy, a banking crisis has added to investor anxieties. The bank turmoil won’t likely be a drag to global financial markets. But it does argue for caution when combined with our broader expectations of a sustained period of below-trend growth.
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White papers
Second Quarter 2023 Market Outlook
As if 2023 wasn’t complicated enough, a banking crisis joined the fray in the first quarter of the year. The compilation of risks, including the dire consequences of the looming U.S. debt ceiling showdown, brings a U.S. recession even closer.
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White papers
As Credit Goes, So Goes the Economy
Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and the credit system just had a heart murmur.
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White papers
India 5G: Data Is the New Oil
While India is set to overtake China to become the world’s most populous country in April as forecast by the United Nations, it is also keen to establish its position in the 5G landscape. Following rapid 5G deployment in China, the U.S. and other pioneering countries in 2019, India is now leading a new wave of 5G network rollouts. The government concluded its largest-ever spectrum auction in August 2022, and 5G services are already available in 13 cities.
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White papers
Financial reform in China – A step forward, or backward?
In early March, at this year’s National People’s Congress, China’s leaders approved the State Council Institutional Reform Plan. It sets out to restructure government ministries and regulatory bodies to enhance policy and reform efficiency. For financial markets, the overhaul of the financial regulatory regime will be the main point of interest: Could it spell progress or regression in achieving a better outcome in the trade-off between stability and efficiency in capital allocation?
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White papers
What Does Secondary Market Growth Mean for You?
Few corners of private markets can match the recent growth of secondaries. Once the province of distressed sellers and “zombie funds,” secondaries now involve the bluest of blue-chip LPs and GPs (see here and here). This evolution has helped annual volume rocket from $20 billion in 2008 to well more than $100 billion in 2021 and 2022.
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White papers
A rocky net zero pathway calls for a new approach to portfolios
There’s a growing global consensus on the urgent need to combat climate change. But governments’ uncoordinated reactions to energy price spikes in the past year showed that a successful and orderly transition to a greener economy is far from guaranteed.
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White papers
A tale of two markets: Contrasting the fortunes of European and US High Yield
The European High Yield (HY) market has outperformed the US market over the last five, 10 and 20 years. We compare the trends in charts and ask: Will this continue and what are the main similarities and differences between the US and European markets?