Fixed Income – Page 23
-
White papers
Global Investment Views - December 2022
Markets have seen some relief in a year that overall is likely to be remembered as among the most challenging for investors. But the negative trend reverted somewhat with gains for the S&P 500 and select Treasury Indices.
-
White papers
EMD outlook for 2023: local currency yields offer protection in volatile conditions
Global factors weighing on emerging market debt (EMD) in 2022 look likely to continue in 2023, with three main driving forces within this: tighter financial conditions led by the US, a stronger US dollar and weak global growth.
-
White papers
Divergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
-
White papers
Credit markets? They’re too cheap to ignore
The market environment this year has proven tricky to navigate, but today’s credit market offers a compelling entry point into global credit for investors focused on long-term, fundamentally driven analysis.
-
White papers
Markets bounce on hopes US inflation has peaked
The US inflation rate cooled to 7.7% in October, weaker than many forecasts, to hit its lowest level since January.
-
White papers
Ahead of the Curve, Q4 2022
In our quarterly macroeconomic update, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist, provides her outlook for the global economy amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures and mounting fears of a recession. Is there still ground for optimism? Read our update to find out more.
-
White papers
US Inflation Reduction Act: a strong force to accelerate energy transition technologies
In August, the US passed a major milestone in climate policy with the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As the largest piece of federal legislation ever to address climate change, we believe it will have a profound effect across industries for decades to come.
-
White papers
When bonds fail to hedge: the problem with conservative portfolios
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we examine why the performance of ‘conservative’ portfolios has suffered from using fixed income to lower volatility, rather than cash.
-
White papers
The corporate bond is back
We believe that corporate bond yields are close to an inflection point, with the high levels of yields achievable providing a buffer to further yield rises. In short – the corporate bond is back.
-
White papers
The pursuit of consistent income streams
Generating income is a key role of fixed income. For investors, the durability of income streams becomes more important amid heightened volatility in both equity and bond markets.
-
White papers
How Long Will 75bps Stay in Vogue?
After an initial dovish reading of the FOMC statement, Jay Powell’s tone was firmly hawkish and led to a reversal in risk sentiment and a higher market-implied terminal rate. While the BoE also hiked 75bps, the bank signaled a lower endpoint. All eyes are on inflation data next week.
-
White papers
Market Scenarios and Risks - November 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
-
White papers
For the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
-
White papers
How the ECB’s climate tilt favours ice cubes
The European Central Bank is gradually decarbonising its corporate bond holdings in a move that will be beneficial to borrowers with clear net-zero targets. We expect increased spread differentiation between transition leaders and transition laggards, and consider how the design of our TargetNetZero strategy is well-positioned to capture the opportunities.
-
White papers
1-2 November FOMC meeting: debating a downshift, not a pivot
As widely expected, on 2 November, the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds rate by 75bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The action marked the fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike this year. Investors initially interpreted the accompanying statement as dovish by selling the dollar and buying US Treasuries and equities.
-
White papers
Asset Class Returns Forecasts - Q4 2022
We reiterate the main driver affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments is a combination of sustained inflation, mounting recession fears and geopolitical developments. Price stability has become the paramount goal and even more complicated to reach, therefore CBs will make sure high inflation will not be entrenched in economic agents’ long-term expectations.
-
White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2022
Tightening monetary policy and slowing economic growth lead us to keep a cautious stance on risk assets, in light of potential liquidity and refinancing issues, particularly in low quality credit. We prefer US IG (over HY) segments and selectively like EM hard currency debt.
-
White papers
Bonds that build back better
Some might argue that building a sustainable economy is a technological problem. It isn’t. The world is sufficiently stocked with greenhouse gas-reducing technologies such as renewable fuels, carbon capture and energy storage. What it lacks is capital.
-
White papers
Recession watch: triggers, outlook and what next for central banks
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact.
-
White papers
Nobody Ever Got Fired for Buying Senior Credit
“Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM,” is a saying that’s been floating around investor circles for decades. The now-legendary catchphrase has been used to imply that IBM was the ultimate safe bet for investors. Likewise, if private markets had a catchy sound bite today, it would have to be, “Nobody ever got fired for buying senior credit.”