Fleeting Alpha: The Challenge of Consistent Outperformance

Can past winners persist across longer time horizons, market caps and investment styles?

The phrase “past performance is no guarantee of future results” (or some variation thereof) can be found in most funds’ literature, and for good reason: a wealth of studies show a lack of long-term performance persistence among actively managed mutual funds. However, many investors appear to believe that winners persist: past performance and related metrics remain important factors in manager selection.

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