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  • ESG now pervasive in Europe and growing in China weblink

    White papers 19 March 2019

    Environmental, Social and Governance issues (ESG) continue to grow in importance at the companies our analysts cover. Just over 70 per cent report that firms are increasing their emphasis on ESG policies, up 12 percentage points on last year. Still, a sizeable share of our analysts (39 per cent) say this is only the case for a minority of their companies, suggesting it’s not yet a concept that’s caught on everywhere.

  • Sector by sector: Analyst Survey 2019 weblink

    White papers 19 March 2019

    Among the analysts of 10 sectors, only those in healthcare showed an improvement in sentiment from last year. Consumer discretionary and utilities analysts were the most pessimistic, being the only sectors expecting prospects for their companies to decline.

  • Fidelity Analyst Survey 2019 weblink

    White papers 19 March 2019

    This year’s Fidelity Analyst Survey reveals a corporate landscape of retreating confidence and quiet positioning for lower growth. But while the age of optimism might be over for now, recession is not yet upon us.

  • Price moderation is an encouraging sign in the global housing market weblink

    White papers 13 December 2018

    Price moderation in some of the most overvalued housing markets is an encouraging sign that bubbles could deflate in a controlled manner, as it is due mostly to supply-side policy measures rather than to weakness in demand.

  • ‘Yellow vest’ reforms to give a strong boost to French consumers weblink

    White papers 13 December 2018

    While the scenes of rioting and violent protests in France may look dramatic, they are not very widespread. Most of the demonstrations by the so-called yellow-vest protestors are taking place in one small area in Paris. The policy response however has been a positive one. President Emmanuel Macron announced a package of measures that is expected to boost consumers’ purchasing power in 2019.

  • Fidelity Leading Indicator: Deceleration after frontloading on US tariff worries weblink

    White papers 11 December 2018

    Our proprietary FLI now shows a deceleration trend, in contrast with the tentative stabilisation we had seen previously. The signal is once again unambiguously negative. As we had feared, the big swing factor this month was a large slowing in Asia-sensitive ‘Global Trade’ components. The strong ‘front-loading’ of activity to avoid the potential 1 January tariff escalation in the US-China trade war suddenly dropped from the data.

  • Perfect storm lifts US treasuries weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    US treasuries have had somewhat of a rollercoaster ride these past few weeks. A combination of political volatility in Britain, Italy and France, global growth concerns and a cooling China, falling oil prices, stretched positioning and poor December liquidity have led to a sell-off in risky assets.

  • Retail's fall from grace: salutary lessons for real estate investors from the nation of shopkeepers weblink

    White papers 5 December 2018

    Bricks-and-mortar retailers are in a fight for survival. Online shopping is transforming retail but at a time when consumption is struggling and the role of consumption in growth is waning.

  • US-China trade truce makes a real deal more likely weblink

    White papers 3 December 2018

    Asian equity markets and US stock futures rallied following US President Donald Trump’s decision to hold off raising trade tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The temporary truce makes a deal more likely, which would ultimately benefit both countries.

  • All eyes on Buenos Aires for make-or-break G20 summit weblink

    Asset Manager News 30 November 2018

    At the upcoming G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, the stakes are high for Presidents Trump and Xi as they are expected to meet in a bid to break the trade deadlock. In terms of possible outcomes, we believe that while there is the possibility of a truce, the hawks on both sides may have outsize influence on the debate, and further entrench the leaders into a stalemate.

  • EM Outlook: It’s been a long time coming, but a change is going to come weblink

    White papers 28 November 2018

    The softer tone from the Fed could provide some respite to beaten-up EM assets, but risks remain to the downside due to China’s slowing growth and toughening global conditions.

  • Bumpy road ahead for US tech stocks weblink

    White papers 28 November 2018

    Close to $1 trillion has been wiped off the combined market value of the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) from their highs this year so far. And there are reasons to suggest the volatility will continue into 2019. But we certainly don’t believe this is the beginning of the end for the FAANGs.

  • The opportunities in China's mixed-bag economy weblink

    White papers 27 November 2018

    Despite dismal headlines about the US-Sino trade dispute and China’s deleveraging campaign, the situation in the real economy is more of a mixed bag. Increased focus focus shareholder returns and lower valuation premiums mean there are opportunities out there.

  • Oil prices: What's the story? weblink

    White papers 26 November 2018

    After steadily tracking higher for most of this year, oil prices have plummeted by around 25 per cent since early October. There are some fundamental merits to this move. However political manoeuvring and technical selling are exacerbating both the size and speed of the decline, and the sell-off is likely to be overdone. This could create opportunities in 2019.

  • Beware of the BuBBBle in investment grade weblink

    White papers 26 November 2018

    With the number of companies issuing BBB-rated bonds soaring since the financial crisis, there have been worries that a wave of downgrades could dent the high-yield and credit market in 2019, given the higher level of leverage on these bonds.

  • China's easing has not been easy weblink

    White papers 21 November 2018

    China’s emphasis on deleveraging has softened in recent months, but credit flow to privately owned enterprises remains weak. As shadow banking fades, bigger players in the banking system could be pushed to take on more credit risk and increase support to private companies. In the near-term, we expect to see more onshore defaults and volatility.

  • Don’t wait for good news to buy UK equities weblink

    White papers 21 November 2018

    Amid all the Brexit-related turmoil, the unrelenting negativity that investors are demonstrating towards UK equities is making me feel more and more positive about their prospects for 2019. It might be counterintuitive to think that the UK market could be among the top performers globally in the year that we leave the EU, if indeed that happens, but markets have a way of confounding expectations.

  • Fidelity Leading Indicator - hit by 'front-loading'? weblink

    White papers 9 November 2018

    Our proprietary Fidelity leading Indicator (FLI) cycle tracker is still stuck in the ‘bottom left’ quadrant, although there are signs activity could stabilise around the turn of 2019.

  • Midterms could be good for the US economy weblink

    White papers 7 November 2018

    For once, the outcome of the mid-term elections has gone the way the pollsters and political analysts expected, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans retaining their marginal hold on the Senate. In what will be seen by some as an inevitable reaction against an unconventional White House, the question is whether there is anything for investors to consider in this result.

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