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  • Valuation and sentiment: Two signs flashing caution as bull market heads into 2018 download

    White papers 15 January 2018

    The impressive, broad-based equity market gains of 2017 have extended to every country in the world, buoyed by modest but positive global economic growth and continued support from central banks.

  • What’s to be made of the “Trump reflation trade”? download

    White papers 30 April 2017

    Investors had the “Trump reflation trade” on their mind in the first quarter of 2017.

  • Trump era signals higher rates, volatility and opportunity download

    White papers 17 January 2017

    Donald Trump’s surprising victory was a game changer for the markets. His election sparked the kind of change in investor psychology that we have not witnessed since the end of the financial crisis.

  • US yield curve doesn’t yield the same insights download

    White papers 31 October 2016

    The U.S. bond market yield curve long has been viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity. In the late stage of an expansion, a flattening of the curve might result from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s action to raise its target fed funds rate in an attempt to control inflationary growth.

  • Can capital spending pick up the slack from a weakening consumer? download

    White papers 31 October 2016

    I often think of consumer spending and industrial production as the yin and yang of the U.S. economy. In the years since the financial crisis, I am struck by the juxtaposition of the resilience of the consumer against the weakness on the industrial and manufacturing side of the economy.

  • Investors may need to lower return expectations in wake of Brexit download

    White papers 15 July 2016

    The historic Brexit vote on June 23 sent shockwaves through the capital markets and sparked a global flight to quality in fixed-income sectors, as investors reacted to new political and economic uncertainty.

  • Monetary policy: Too much of a good thing?

    White papers 13 July 2016

    Many assets are back to their pre-Brexit highs following the market volatility right after the “Leave” vote won on June 23. While some such as the British pound and European bank stocks are notably lower, many other “risk” markets, including equities, credit and emerging-market assets, are at – or above – their levels from before the Brexit vote.

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