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  • Time is running out to solve China’s debt bubble download

    White papers 7 August 2019

    Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble, says Paul Smillie.

  • Flashforward: Drawing Parallels With 1999/2000 download

    White papers 7 August 2019

    Investors in the UK and overseas are adopting extreme positioning in their hunt for defensive growth. In doing so the elastic has become very stretched and a sharp rotation could be overdue. This market dynamic is reminiscent of 1999/2000 whereby ‘old economy’ stocks are discarded in favour of ‘new economy’ ones.

  • Two quarters of turbulence: what the pre-Christmas plunge and new year rebound say about markets download

    White papers 30 May 2019

    World equity indices plunged during Q4 last year before staging a powerful recovery, regaining virtually all the ground they had lost. This extraordinary turn of events may look irrational, but it tells a coherent story about the fragility of investor confidence as we navigate the end of this economic cycle and approach the US elections in 2020...

  • In Credit download

    White papers 8 April 2019

    Should I stay… or should I go?

  • Some great companies and attractive valuations offer opportunities in Europe download

    White papers 21 March 2019

    Following strong performance in 2017, European markets retreated in 2018 – a sell-off that was markedly similar to the 2015-16 downturn, when industrials, miners, banks, commodities and emerging markets plummeted by 30% or more...

  • Valuations, BBBs And Policy Change - European Investment Grade Outlook | March 2019 download

    White papers 20 March 2019

    Companies in most developed market economies have enjoyed years of super-low borrowing costs The European IG market has increased in size from a face value of around €800 billion in 2005 to more than €2.1 trillion by the end of January But what might happen to companies were borrowing costs to return to levels many of us considered to be normal only a few years ago...

  • Multinationals race to tap Asia’s conspicuous consumers download

    White papers 19 March 2019

    Western corporations are well placed to profit from Asia’s rapidly growing consumer wealth.

  • Japan’s strengthening fundamentals go unnoticed download

    White papers 19 March 2019

    Global investors underappreciate the changing behaviour of Japanese companies, which has made them more resilient and well positioned to benefit from global reflation.

  • European equities: targeting positive returns in an uncertain climate download

    White papers 19 March 2019

    A decade after the financial crisis, the uncertain economic conditions it ushered in are starving Europe’s investors of returns.

  • Where Are We In The Brexit Process? download

    White papers 11 March 2019

    Despite the rapidly approaching deadline for the UK leaving the European Union, much remains up in the air. Trying to gauge the long-term economic impact is difficult, but we are seeking to minimise unwanted risk in our portfolios.

  • Asset Allocation Update - Much ado about equities and credit download

    White papers 21 February 2019

    Equities and corporate bonds often do well together. Over the past 20 years the “beta coefficient” between credit to equities has been 0.5 in both the US and Europe; that is to say, for every 1% rise (or fall) in equity prices, credit markets have tended to return (or weaken) 0.5%.

  • Global equities: identifying tomorrow’s ‘superstars’ download

    White papers 11 January 2019

    After a bearish end to 2018, financial market participants are preoccupied with the question of whether a global downturn is imminent. Yet they should be asking a different question: have they accounted for the way that technology and other factors are transforming business models?

  • Asian Equities: US-China relationship to remain critical download

    White papers 11 January 2019

    Asia Pacific ex Japan markets started the year well, holding on to gains that were chalked in the strong rally in 2017. But by mid-year, signs of slowing economic growth surfaced, primarily induced by US-China trade tensions, leading to a sharp market correction, particularly for Chinese equities.

  • A tale of two worlds: a robust business cycle in the US and a draining of liquidity in the rest of the world download

    White papers 11 January 2019

    After President Trump signed the ‘Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’ into law on 22 December 2017, we expected corporate earnings growth to be strong in 2018. In fact, it has been far stronger, as the direct effect of the tax cut on corporate earnings was further magnified by the acceleration in economic growth.

  • Fixation on Brexit misses the bigger picture download

    White papers 11 January 2019

    Reflecting on 2018, global equity markets have lurched from optimism to pessimism. At the beginning of the year there was a complacent belief in synchronised global growth. But cut to the fourth quarter and many strategists are speculating whether the United States might soon enter a recession and how Chinese economic growth is slowing as they try to get a grip of their own excessive debt levels.

  • Finding opportunity in Europe’s volatility download

    White papers 11 January 2019

    Looking back at 2018, it was a year when European corporate earnings continued to grow, while market volatility was surprisingly high. The volatility was a result of both political noise and the fear of a slowdown in global growth.

  • Disruptive technologies challenge traditional infrastructure approach download

    White papers 15 November 2018

    Traditional infrastructure investments are being challenged by the pace of innovation, and technology and disruption will likely create opportunities across all core infrastructure asset types. So a highly flexible approach is required to respond to this.

  • Q&A – the credit cycle and interest rates download

    White papers 15 November 2018

    The Head of Investment Grade Credit, EMEA, gives his thoughts on where we are in the credit cycle, what will happen to interest rates, and his expectations for the future and how President Trump might influence this.

  • Competitive advantage takes centre stage download

    White papers 15 November 2018

    Technology firms previously enjoyed three to five years of competitive advantage, but today’s sector is a different beast.

  • Shopping for high-quality industrial property download

    White papers 15 November 2018

    After a year of strong returns, industrial property is in vogue with investors.

  • US smaller companies may shine as rates rise download

    White papers 15 November 2018

    Historically, when Treasury yields rise US smaller companies tend to outperform their large company counterparts – and we could just be entering such a period.

  • Divided we stand...? download

    White papers 15 November 2018

    US yields finished marginally lower after being on the higher side for much of the week.

  • In Credit: The sun shines on Brazil? download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    Core US bond yields drifted higher again last week with volatility in Europe centred upon the Italian bond market once again.

  • Expect a rise in volatility from a ‘no-deal’ Brexit download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    Amid growing speculation that the UK could be heading towards a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, market watchers agree that this would be disruptive for UK markets. But the impact on European markets is likely to be more varied.

  • Italy would have better prospects in a new financial crisis download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    Credit agency Cerved predicts the country is better placed to withstand a crisis than it was in 2008, with the pharmaceutical, tech and supermarket stocks looking most resilient.

  • Italy’s outlook clouded by populist policies download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    While the new government’s economic policies appear expansionary, a lack of clarity over how they will be paid for means investors may face turbulent months ahead.

  • Reinvigorating the Mittelstand download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    Germany’s small- and medium-sized companies have been at the core of its economic success story, but now their fortunes depend on their ability to adapt to mounting pressures.

  • How to access tech stocks in Europe download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    The US has “FAANGs” – major global technology brands that dominate the market – while Asia has “BATTs”.

  • An old-fashioned emerging markets crisis download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    The recent plunge in Turkey’s lira has once again put emerging markets at the forefront of investors’ minds.

  • Precarious protection: why trade tariffs won’t hold back the disruptors download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    Disruptive innovation is one of the defining trends of the 21st century.

  • October volatility: It’s about discount rates not cash flows download

    White papers 1 November 2018

    The recent move in markets has been savage, with major stock indices all deeply in the red.

  • European equities: Mid-year Review download

    White papers 27 August 2018

    Political risk in Europe bubbled up once more this year, with uncertainty in Italy and Germany.

  • US equities: Mid-year Review download

    White papers 27 August 2018

    The US entered the year on a high, but markets were unsettled by President Trump’s bout of protectionism in announcing an initial $50 billion of tariffs.

  • Asian equities: Mid-year Review download

    White papers 27 August 2018

    There was a correction across Asia Pacific ex Japan in the first half of the year, says Soo Nam Ng, despite solid economic growth.

  • Japan: Mid-year Review download

    White papers 27 August 2018

    Despite the Japanese economy contracting in Q1 2018, following eight consecutive quarters of growth, the Nikkei started the year very strongly.

  • Emerging markets: Mid-year Review download

    White papers 27 August 2018

    Early euphoria has slowly evaporated in an eventful six months which has taken in trade wars and political uncertainty in Mexico and Brazil.

  • Banking problems impede India’s reforms download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    There has generally been a positive response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s structural reforms, but there has been an investment slowdown in the medium-term, and recent scandals, huge bad loans and ATM cash shortages imply a banking system that is in crisis – to the tune of $210 billion.

  • Equities poised for growth download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    The correction at the start of the year didn’t damage Asia Pacific ex Japan’s fundamental recovery, but volatility will rise, which will subsequently providing active managers like ourselves with a good environment to outperform the market.

  • Time to catch rising Asian ESG tide download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    Asian governments now prioritise sustainable economic growth over ‘growth at any cost’, yet there remains a wide disparity in ESG standards in the region.

  • Upgrading Vietnam download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    Investors are attracted to the country’s ‘mini-China’ story: that of a communist state embracing the private economy.

  • What to know about investing in China download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    There used to be a lot of concern around China’s old industrial economy, but supply-side reforms have curtailed excess capacity.

  • Why sustainable growth supports ASEAN equities download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is in a cycle of high-quality, balanced economic growth, with China leading the way.

  • A strong first year puts Shariah strategy on the front foot download

    White papers 31 May 2018

    Last month marked the first anniversary of a unique Columbia Threadneedle Investments strategy.

  • Asset Allocation Update: Strong earnings prompt US equities upgrade download

    White papers 30 May 2018

    Amid background noise such as ongoing trade skirmishes involving the US, the evolving Chinese economy and geo-political tensions, we have spent time analysing recent market movements and the implications for risk assets.

  • The inflation pendulum download

    White papers 8 May 2018

    It’s not good to have too much or too little inflation, but trying to get a huge pendulum the size of the US economy to settle in the middle is very difficult.

  • The employment enigma: why is there no inflation? download

    White papers 8 May 2018

    After years of monetary stimulus, zero interest rates and quantitative easing, the global economy is now experiencing strong, synchronised growth.

  • Climbing the wall of worry: why this is the most miserable bull market we’ve ever had download

    White papers 8 May 2018

    We are nine years into the equities bull market, in what has been a remarkable period for investors.

  • Sparkling performance boosts luxury goods download

    White papers 19 April 2018

    The past two years has seen a pick-up in luxury goods, as the global economy continues to expand.

  • Going global with a consistent small cap strategy download

    White papers 19 April 2018

    ‘Big is best’ is not an adage that we subscribe to with the Threadneedle Global Smaller Companies strategy: we concentrate on high-quality growing companies that we believe are undervalued by the market – and we do so on a global scale.

  • Daisuke Nomoto: Japan - more tailwinds than headwinds for 2018 download

    White papers 13 March 2018

    With GDP on a sustained growth track, supported by structural reforms and the Bank of Japan’s accommodative monetary policy, we maintain a positive outlook for the region.

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