Cash flows and discount rates have moved in opposite directions over the past six months, and discount rate moves have triumphed. Take the year so far. Equity cash flows, proxied by earnings growth expectations1, have weakened across each major equity bloc or region, shifting horizontally to the left in Figure 1. Yet stock market returns have risen – moving up vertically – apparently shrugging off the weaker cash flow picture.
Cloud computing, machine learning and the potential of the, as yet, relatively untapped field of data science have been rapidly rising up the agenda of the investment world. In an industry that is undergoing seismic changes, the capabilities, reach and efficiencies that data science innovation offers have potential to play an important role
World equity indices plunged during Q4 last year before staging a powerful recovery, regaining virtually all the ground they had lost. This extraordinary turn of events may look irrational, but it tells a coherent story about the fragility of investor confidence as we navigate the end of this economic cycle and approach the US elections in 2020
The UK’s departure from the European Union is still up in the air, despite setting a new date in October for leaving There remains no clarity on where the country will stand in terms of a deal by the time the formal process is triggered When the UK finally leaves, it probably faces two extremes – a hard or soft Brexit. Consensus suggests the former would cause more disruption
In the space of just 12 months, markets have switched from expecting interest rate rises to expecting interest rate falls. Broadly speaking, this means 2019 should be a good year for fixed income. But investors are treading a fine line and need to differentiate between fixed income strategies.