In this unprecedented time of high uncertainty from a sanitary and economic perspective, the different drivers at play are moving in different directions. These forces make the exercise of GDP forecasting quite tricky and not particularly helpful for the time being.
In the first intra-meeting ease since the 2008 crisis, the Fed delivered a 50 basis-point rate cut. Market volatility and liquidity concerns have likely been the trigger for the emergency cut. The market reaction has been a sell-off in equities, while the 10-year Treasury yield touched new lows, as the Fed move is perceived as not being enough to offset recent deterioration in financial conditions due to the market reaction to the coronavirus outbreak. Markets still expect more.
The spread of Covid-19 outside China has rattled risk assets in the recent trading sessions. Investors triggered some profit taking in markets, which reached historical highs and even broke psychological thresholds in previous weeks. The atmosphere of fear has remained consistently high only in the so-called safe assets — the USD, UST and gold — signaling that investors have been looking for effective hedging strategies.