Moment of Inflection: Economic Outlook

The macroeconomic outlook is constructive for 2017, driven by a reacceleration in global economic growth. Markus Schomer, CFA, Chief Global Economist, discusses the potential for political risk to alter the course.

The seeds are being sown for an inflection point in the global economy. The political changes are unmistakable: Both Donald Trump’s presidential win in the US and the UK’s Brexit vote show broad segments of populations are taking any opportunity to reject the status quo. Other catalysts are more subtle: A gradual increase in inflation expectations could accelerate the normalization in US monetary policy and reduce the extreme monetary policy stance in other countries.

Global economic growth has disappointed over the past few years. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the world economy will grow only about 3% in 2016.

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