Investment Strategy Insights: The Global Slowing – Due to Trade or Something Else?

While trade frictions attracted the most attention, the primary and outsize drag on global growth in 2018 was the self-imposed slowdown China began in mid-2017. Intended as a gentle cooling, the deleveraging and derisking program overshot; China’s private sector — 60% of its economy — iced up.

Since approximately one-third of global growth comes from China, its abrupt chilling spread to economies throughout the world, with an outsize impact on other emerging economies and Europe, just as in 2015.

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