The year ahead will bring secular turning points. Michael J. Kelly, CFA, Global Head of Multi-Asset, explores potential beneficiaries as the world pivots, including commodities producers and countries with accelerating and domestically sourced growth.
Since 2009, we’ve been in a “glass half empty” world. But it’s time to ring out the old. The year ahead marks several simultaneous secular turning points driven by the end of deleveraging in the US, a more vigorous China, re-inflation, a slow onset of tapering, fiscal policy taking the lead, and, of course, the X factor – not Xi this time, but Trump.
While many have bought into secular stagnation arguments, an alternative explanation is that post-financial-crisis periods are always followed by deleveraging and regulatory overkill, during which growth is slow.
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