Donald Trump Is the Next US President as Brexit Risk Crosses the Pond

Financial markets are reacting dramatically to the news that Donald Trump has won the US presidential election with sharp declines in global equities, a major rally in Treasuries, and a selloff of the dollar. What’s next?

Against almost all the polling evidence, Donald Trump has won the 2016 US presidential election. It feels like Brexit all over again – another event that we knew would have a significant impact, but that markets largely priced in as having a low probability. The race seemed close for a long period, but the underlying trend of significant gains for Trump in more rural areas extended through nearly all the swing states. In addition to winning the White House, Republicans also maintained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The former was expected, the latter had trended Democratic in pre-election polls.

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