2016 Midyear Global Economic Outlook: A Tip of the Scales?

Improving fundamentals in 2016 could generate more upside for global growth in 2017.

In the first half of 2016, the global economy faced the effects of three major shocks: the collapse in oil prices, slower growth in China, and rising policy rates in the US. These have prevented a stronger underlying growth trend from emerging. And while economies will continue to deal with the fallout, we think the starts may be beginning to take hold.

Growth in the world economy slowed to just 3.1% last year, well below the nearly 4% average in the five years since the recovery started in 2010.

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