Content (213)

  • A Sobering Outlook for the UK Economy, but the BoE Is Back on Track

    Blog

    A Sobering Outlook for the UK Economy, but the BoE Is Back on Track

    2022-08-04T11:08:00Z

    The UK’s strong post-pandemic recovery, thanks to positive policy support measures, had been its saving grace. But a succession of negative shocks – Brexit, the pandemic and rising energy prices – is creating huge uncertainty to the outlook.

  • The Fed’s Finally Getting in the Zone

    Blog

    The Fed’s Finally Getting in the Zone

    2022-07-27T10:56:00Z

    The Federal Reserve’s latest 75 bps rate hike was accompanied by a more nuanced tone. While it emphasized continued vigilance in fighting inflation, it acknowledged the slowdown in certain economic segments. 

  • Voilà! Is the ECB Capable of Going Big?

    Blog

    Voilà! Is the ECB Capable of Going Big?

    2022-07-21T11:04:00Z

    The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised investors with an outsized 50 bp rate hike today, taking its policy rate out of negative territory in one fell swoop. But the ECB’s Governing Council underwhelmed with its vague announcement of a new tool, known as the transmission protection instrument (TPI). This tool is meant to ensure the even transmission of monetary policy across the euro area.

  • Image zoomed in on an Newton's Cradle The Extending Chain Reaction of Dollar Dominance

    Blog

    The Extending Chain Reaction of Dollar Dominance

    2022-07-15T10:50:00Z

    Strength in the U.S. dollar historically leads to anticipation about its effects on commodity prices and the prospects for the emerging markets. However, as monetary policy rates diverge and Europe’s energy crisis intensifies, the dollar’s significant appreciation against the Japanese yen and the euro points to an extending chain reaction.

  • Buy-the-dip

    Blog

    The Fed and the “Buy-the-Dip” Mentality

    2022-07-05T10:33:00Z

    Since the global financial crisis, investors have become accustomed to the “Fed put” during periods of market stress. Severe downdrafts in risky assets and their associated risks to growth were met by a Fed willing to ease policy in an effort to meet the maximum-employment side of its dual mandate.

  • Dispatched from Cairo

    Blog

    Dispatches from Cairo: Bitter Medicine for Stronger Growth

    2022-06-23T10:30:00Z

    ”It is a medicine with a very bitter taste, but it will make us stronger.” – Taxi driver commenting on the Egyptian government’s policies.

  • Powell Soft Pedals 75 bps Hike as Markets Remain on Edge

    Blog

    Powell Soft Pedals 75 bps Hike as Markets Remain on Edge

    2022-06-16T10:20:00Z

    The Federal Reserve assumed an even more aggressive stance at its meeting on June 15 in light of persistently high and broad-based inflation readings and indications—at least from a few measures—that medium-term inflation expectations are starting to march higher.

  • The ECB Bangs the Inflation Drum

    Blog

    The ECB Bangs the Inflation Drum

    2022-06-09T10:14:00Z

    The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised investors with a hawkish message from its policy meeting today. It backed that message up with a clear roadmap for the coming months, out of net asset purchases and out of negative interest rates.

  • “Friend-shoring-” Does Regional Retrenchment Herald Lower EM Growth?

    Blog

    “Friend-shoring:” Does Regional Retrenchment Herald Lower EM Growth?

    2022-06-06T10:01:00Z

    Just as the world economy was recovering from COVID-19, 2022 brought fresh challenges. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, higher energy prices, food shortages and protectionist tensions all weigh on emerging-market (EM) growth. As a result, the IMF lowered its EM growth outlook for 2022 from +4.8% in January to +3.8% in April.

  • Featured Image_GI487808414 (Federal Reserve DC)

    White papers

    Fed Aims Hard at Soft Landing

    2022-06-04T13:58:00Z

    An optimistic tone regarding a soft-economic landing accompanied the beginning of the Fed’s rapid advance on the inflation front, fueling a rally in equities, credit spreads, and long-term interest rates. It marks a point where Fed policy entered a second stage—likely with some market consolidation and less volatility—as the Fed funds target catches up with market expectations.

  • Podcast Art_1920x1080px

    Podcast

    Fixed on ESG, Ep. 2

    2022-05-24T14:22:00Z

    Food prices have been rising globally for some time now. While the Russia/Ukraine conflict has exacerbated food instability, many other factors have also come into play including the COVID-19 pandemic, increases in demand from growing populations, extreme weather events, among others.

  • Things to know about the yield curve Featured Image 497155329

    White papers

    Four Key Findings about the U.S. Yield Curve

    2022-05-24T14:15:00Z

    The U.S. yield curve attracts a great deal of attention when it is close to inverting given its historical connection with U.S. recessions as well as sharp selloffs in equity and credit markets.