The next big test for markets – a wave of negative EPS revisions

A wave of negative profit warnings looms. Bond-market signals and history can help dimension what’s coming, says Philip Lawlor, head of global markets research.

Consensus EPS forecasts are stuck in limbo as analysts struggle to predict the unpredictable amid a fast-moving health crisis and a scarcity of hard data. Though estimates continue to point to a robust global earnings recovery this year and next, no one believes them.

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