COP26 Net Zero Atlas

As world leaders gather in Glasgow to review progress and agree new climate measures, our first Net Zero Atlas surveys countries’ latest climate targets and mitigation strategies. Building on our work on climate risk for sovereign assets in fixed income markets, we calculate the implied temperature rise (ITR) associated with individual national climate goals. This provides a consistent (if highly stylized) metric to assess alignment with different global warming trajectories and to systematically compare climate commitments across countries and over time.

We apply this methodology to climate commitments of G20 countries for 2050 based on their Net Zero targets and for 2030 both for their NDCs and for their ‘Current Policies’. The latter present emissions projections that have been developed in an associated research project led by researchers from IIASA and the NewClimate Institute, under the assumption that current national climate policies would stay in place unaltered.

With multiple policies, targets and ambitions being formulated and revised by countries at different stages of economic development, taking stock on global mitigation efforts has become a daunting exercise. That greater efforts are required is clear, but who is leading and who is lagging? Are the new Net Zero targets consistent with the Paris Agreement? Are the revised NDCs in turn consistent with their Net Zero Targets? And are countries’ current policies really on track to achieve 2030 commitments and 2050 goals?

Download this paper at the link below