Content (359)
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White papersTransitory is the Name of the Game
Muted reaction to a high U.S. CPI reading confirmed markets believe the Fed is heading to a policy mistake following recent upward shift in median dots. In the U.S., we watch the release of flash PMIs, while the ECB should adjust policy strategy. In Asia, Japan CPI remains benign.
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Deja vu for CLOs?
Heavy supply around quarterly payment dates has led to predictable periods of spread widening in the CLO market—creating attractive relative value opportunities up and down the capital structure.
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IG Credit: Flexibility is Key
While uncertainty remains around rates and inflation, opportunities continue to emerge across IG credit, including in areas outside of traditional corporate bonds.
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Three Reasons for EM Corporate Short Duration Debt
While the potential for inflation and rising rates could create a headwind for EM debt, a short duration approach can provide an opportunity to pick up incremental yield and diversification, with less volatility.
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The World’s Simplest Asset Allocation Model
When markets and data look this contradictory, it may be easier to start by counting on your fingers.
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Gravity’s Pull Isn’t Strong Enough Yet
While fears of a COVID resurgence impacting activity and premature monetary policy tightening are weighing on markets’ outlook, momentum in the economic recovery is set to keep growth from succumbing to the pull of gravity.
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Summer Boom Meets COVID Concerns
Technical factors, perceived Fed hawkishness, the Delta variant, and U.S. infrastructure talks led to a volatile week in markets, which should remain near-term amid COVID concerns and until monetary policy clears up in fall. Solid economic data supports our strong-growth outlook.
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Gravity Will Not Prevail–At Least Not Yet
In advanced economies, storefronts have opened, effective vaccines are rolling out, and people are ready to return to “life as we knew it.” However, normalcy will not return until the pandemic is over globally—unless borders remain closed, with unknown collateral damage.
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Draghi Takes First Shot at Reforming Italy
After getting the vaccination program up to speed and reshaping the country’s recovery plan, Prime Minister Mario Draghi is now focusing on the hard part of the job: actually reforming Italy.
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The Wind Remains at High Yield’s Back (For Now)
Accelerating economic growth and improving corporate financial conditions, coupled with a manageable default picture, continue to bolster high yield.
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EM Debt: Fundamentals Back to the Forefront
The EM growth picture remains positive, but with the Fed’s hawkish pivot toward quarter-end, sovereign and corporate debt look better positioned than local currencies.
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Hoping for Higher Taxes
There’s a long path ahead, but the new global tax framework should actually support the growth that markets seem to be calling into doubt.
