In the central economic scenario - potential but not certain - the economic recovery is expected to take several years to return to the GDP level of 2019, at different speeds in different countries. In 2021, a technical upturn is expected due to the base effect in Q2 (sharp drop in GDP in Q2 2020 due to Covid-19).
The outlook for 2021 will be linked to the date of vaccine availability and the implementation of vaccination campaigns, and phases of economic crisis, outbreaks, localised lockdowns and stimulus measures could occur. “Unconventional” monetary policies should be maintained and10-year interest rates should remain low with, for example, the forecast at the end of October 2020 of the German 10-year interest rate one year later situated between -0.5% and -0.3%.
“We expect to see a scale of value among properties according to location, tenant’s financial robustness, and asset’s intrinsic features, something that had been dissipating before the crisis”.
CEO, Amundi Real Estate
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