Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.
A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside in core bond yields and, on the other, support the credit market, although we are aware that the spread compression in this first part of the year has been very strong and that an increasingly selective approach will be crucial to exploiting ...
The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.
2019 - First semester overview
Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.