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The Trump effect, the Brexit effect, and the impact of European elections… What if everyone – or nearly – were wrong?
FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.
This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.
The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad.