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Italian politics take centre stage download
The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th of August, after addressing the Senate, PM Conte resigned. President Sergio Mattarella will now weigh three options – consult political parties to form a new government (with the same forces of the current coalition or new ones), appoint a caretaker government or call ...
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Argentina: how recent events shape the investment outlook download
Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.
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Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks download
Argentina’s primary elections: Opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez won by largerthan-expected margin against President Macri. At this point, markets price in Fernandez’s victory in October elections.
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US-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope download
Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.
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Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2019 download
We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed economies in 2020. It could subsequently decrease below potential in 2021 driven by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth should stay in positive territory.
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Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019 download
The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.
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Global Asset Class Spotlights - Top Down Quaterly Assessment download
Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.
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Seek High Yield Opportunities, but be aware of liquidity conditions download
Speculative grade bonds have been among the major beneficiaries of the rapid turn of both Fed and ECB monetary policy stances to much more dovish positions. Lower rates for longer and more synchronised easing mean much lower funding costs and easier financial conditions for HY companies, which, as we know, are more sensitive than IG companies to the absolute levels of nominal and real rates.
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Global Investment Views - August 2019 download
The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets. But, it is difficult to see such improvements happening in the short term.
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The FED and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accomodative monetary policy support growth? weblink
The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation...
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France: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis download
Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.
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Fixed Income Charts And Views download
A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside in core bond yields and, on the other, support the credit market, although we are aware that the spread compression in this first part of the year has been very strong and that an increasingly selective approach will be crucial to exploiting ...
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Revisiting Fixed Income Opportunities After The European Institution Appointments download
The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.
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Amundi Strategy Insight - July 2019 weblink
2019 - First semester overview...
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Italy: A Long And Winding Road download
Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.
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Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - July 2019 download
Risk FactorsThe table within the article presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts. Macroeconomic Context - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions...
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July 2019 download
CIO Views: Central Banks Fuel markets: Illusion vs Reality This Month’s Topic: Italy: A Long and Winding Road...
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G20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution download
The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.
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How to differentiate emerging countries? New Approaches For Classification And Typology download
Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better: the wide divergence between countries, the health of some countries (sometimes better than some advanced countries) simply mean that it does not make sense to view the “emerging world” as a whole, as a block, but as well-defined, specific and homogeneous ..
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Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries download
This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.
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