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Stay agile amid diverging scenarios download
After enjoying stellar performance this year, investors will increasingly question whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession moving into 2020, thereby ending the longest ever bull market. Or, if growth stabilizes at a low level, and potentially rebounds, the cycle could extend even further.
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Greening Fixed Income markets: a challenge of today and tomorrow download
Policymakers around the world continue to implement comprehensive strategies to foster sustainable finance.
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Emerging Markets Charts & Views - A Tug Of War Between Weaker Growth And Looser Policies download
Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade. This weighed on the performance of EM equities in the third quarter, although they recovered somewhat in September. EM debt proved more resilient, supported by investors’ appetite for yield. Idiosyncratic events (Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to name a few) also impacted the overall more fragile environment for EM.
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Buybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies download
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.
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Riksbank To Take Interest Rates Back To Zero By End Of 2019 – Norges Bank On Wait-And-See Mode weblink
The Riksbank and Norges Bank both held their monetary policy meetings this week.
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Global Investment Views - November 2019 download
Limbo for markets will not last forever...
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Italy: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework download
On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.
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The Elizabeth Warren Moment weblink
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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Liquidity Dilemma Needs A Regulatory Response download
A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.
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Trump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived weblink
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2019 weblink
Over the past few weeks markets have fluctuated between positive news around geopolitics (US-China trade talks, Italy and receding risks of no-deal Brexit) and not so good news around economic data (German recession, US manufacturing and Chinese slowdown). This led to a rebound in equities and a rise in core bond yields.
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Machine Learning Optimization Algorithms & Portfolio Allocation weblink
Portfolio optimization emerged with the seminal paper of Markowitz (1952). The original mean-variance framework is appealing because it is very efficient from a computational point of view. However, it also has one well-established failing since it can lead to portfolios that are not optimal from a financial point of view (Michaud, 1989). Nevertheless, very few models have succeeded in providing a real alternative solution to the Markowitz model.
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Despite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future download
Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds Cross-border funds offer many advantages for investors and fund sponsors alike; most importantly, they enable all consumers to benefit from greater choice at a lower cost. Originally designed as retail investment products and benefiting from a passport for distribution throughout the EU, UCITS are now sold globally both to the public and to institutional investors.
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Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates download
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results.
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Brexit: Extension Of The Deadline Is Likely, But The Final Outcome Remains Uncertain download
Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before 31 October (the current Brexit deadline).
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French Pension Reform (An Update) download
At the time we were writing the Thematic Paper entitled “French Pension Reform: A Trojan Horse for Better Control of the State Budget?”1, the financial sustainability of the French pension system looked certain. Since then, the government has set a new savings goal, with the aim of achieving financial equilibrium by 2025, and in doing so has prematurely ejected from its Trojan horse… This adds a whole new challenge to an already high-risk reform.
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The ECB And The EU Banking Sector: Some Relief, With Winners And Losers download
The new two-tier deposit-reserving scheme: With this measure the European banking sector could save up to c. €4 billion in annual interest costs (based on avoiding the -50bps deposit rate). However, while a large number in absolute terms, this only accounts for c. 2% of earnings on average for the main banks in the sector and therefore has little impact on overall Returns on Equity and profitability metrics.
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The Fed Cuts Rate, But The Market Expects More download
The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the end of 2020. We think that is too much. In our view, the Fed is likely to pause to monitor the effects of the rate cuts on the economy, before acting again.
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Global Investment Views - October 2019 download
Stay Agile Amid High Uncertainty Over the past few weeks markets have fluctuated between positive news around geopolitics (US-China trade talks, Italy and receding risks of no-deal Brexit) and not so good news around economic data (German recession, US manufacturing and Chinese slowdown). This led to a rebound in equities and a rise in core bond yields.
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Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth download
Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...
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