Amundi Asset Management

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  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • Global Investment Views: A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side download

    White papers 25 March 2019

    Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in the current context.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2019 download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    If an investor had woken up today after three months and looked at the markets, he/she could reasonably say that not much had changed. The year started on strong footing and risk assets experienced a massive rebound in the first weeks of 2019, erasing most of the losses experienced in one of the most awful Decembers in history. As a result some valuation gaps have been closed somewhat, though not exhausted. Markets switched rapidly from a “fear” to a “greed” mood. Catalysts of the renewed ...

  • Financial Applications of Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Optimization download

    White papers 11 March 2019

    In the last five years, the financial industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and machine learning. In this article, we explore two methods that have undergone rapid development in recent years: Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization. Gaussian processes can be seen as a generalization of Gaussian random vectors and are associated with the development of kernel methods.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2019 download

    White papers 1 February 2019

    After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.

  • Cross-Asset Investment Strategy: Is Turkey really out of the woods? download

    White papers 1 February 2019

    After having narrowly escaped a balance of payments crisis last spring, there are questions surrounding the Turkish economy, not to mention the many (geo)political tensions. Throughout this period, the currency has continued to experience strong downward pressures, leading to a surge in inflation. Recently, the markets seem to be recovering hope.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q4 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 November 2018

    We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: November 2018 weblink

    White papers 25 October 2018

    The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 8 October 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.

  • Global Investment Views: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.

  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Protectionism intensifies: country and sector selection to mitigate its effects weblink

    White papers 4 July 2018

    As a base case, we expect limited tariffs will be implemented on different fronts with relatively controlled macro impacts while talks continue. Although talks have become more contentious, we do still see space for negotiation among the various parties. This is the main difference vs a proper “trade war”.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 26 June 2018

    Investors have experienced generally low returns so far this year, due to the clouds currently gathering on the horizon, and the approach to risk assets is being characterised by increased caution.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • Global Investment Views: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 22 May 2018

    We have entered into a regime of diminished returns. Sensitivity to news flow is, and will continue to be, very high, as markets try to adjust to new financial and economic conditions.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 7 May 2018

    While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.

  • Global Investment Views: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 24 April 2018

    Charting an investment path through the fog...

  • Global Investment Views: April 2018

    White papers 29 March 2018

    While still benefitting from a global synchronised growth outlook (likely peaking), financial markets are getting nervous, experiencing the fatigue of a more mature phase with new sources of volatility arising.

  • Ten key questions on recent US protectionist measures

    White papers 23 March 2018

    On March 22, President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on around $50bln of Chinese imports (leaving Europe off for now) and China unveiled tariffs on $3bln of US imports. This adds to the measures announced on March 8, when US President Trump signed an order that imposes tariffs on imported steel (25%) and aluminum (10%), effective on March 23.

  • NAFTA renegotiations risk and main implications for investors

    White papers 14 February 2018

    The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is a trilateral pact between the U.S., Canada and Mexico that has been in force since 1994. Negotiations to revamp and modernize it, requested by the U.S., started in August 2017 and are now encountering some issues.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Quarterly Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q1 - 2018

    White papers 6 February 2018

    The robust global economic growth experienced in 2017 is expected to continue into 2018, albeit with some notable exceptions such as UK. Such growth is to be reflected in ever higher equity price levels and thus expected to become costlier with respect to the most recent valuations.

  • Global Investment Views: February 2018

    White papers 26 January 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2018

    White papers 11 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high.

  • Global Investment Views: January 2018

    White papers 5 January 2018

    Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high. The economic environment remains strong.

  • How OPEC's decisions and tensions in the Middle East could impact the oil price

    White papers 18 December 2017

    We expect the 2018 outlook for oil to remain somewhat stable ($55-60/bbl for WTI and $60-65/bbl for Brent through 2018) as strong demand should be balanced by higher supply from OPEC and Non-OPEC countries.

  • Investment takeaways from ECB year-end meeting

    White papers 17 December 2017

    ECB growth expectations: The Eurozone is ending 2017 on surprisingly strong footing, resulting in a significant upward revision for GDP growth in 2018 (from 1.8 to 2.3%).

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: December 2017

    White papers 8 December 2017

    We believe 2018 will mark the transition from a full-speed reflationary phase, directional and bullish for risk assets (both credit and equities), towards a late phase of the financial market cycle. This could have far-reaching consequences for investors.

  • Global Investment Views: September 2017

    White papers 19 September 2017

    CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...

  • Investment Talks: ECB on hold, but more details on what's next

    White papers 19 September 2017

    The perspective of a turnaround in monetary policy is not going to vanish, and the tapering topic will be back probably sooner than later.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...

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