Amundi Asset Management

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  • Is Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks download

    White papers 30 April 2019

    Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its ...

  • Emerging Market Green Bonds - Report 2018 download

    White papers 29 April 2019

    In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged the world to intensify its efforts to combat climate change by meeting the goal of the 2016 Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

  • Global Asset Class Spotlights - Top Down Quarterly Assessment download

    White papers 29 April 2019

    Growth, monetary policies and geopolitics remain the key drivers of market returns and investment decisions, with their relative influence changing over time. The YTD revival of risk assets has translated into rosier expectations on growth. We remain cautious; we confirm the late cycle environment with extra dovish central banks and growth stabilisation ahead, as our economists are predicting. However, we also look towards the reporting season to confirm the solidity of corporates’ ...

  • Global Investment Views - May 2019 download

    White papers 25 April 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • Economic Modeling Of Climate Risks download

    White papers 18 April 2019

    Climate change is a subject that has been largely addressed from both macroeconomic and energetic standpoints. Integration of climate variables and natural capital into the traditional economic framework can appear conflicting with the notion of infinitely growing economies exploiting finite resources, which questions the sustainability of neoclassic economic growth models.

  • Eurozone a mere dip or a sustained slowdown? download

    White papers 5 April 2019

    After a long series of disappointments in 2018, euro zone economic figures have remained very mixed so far in 2019. However, the situation should improve over the coming quarters, thanks to a combination of robust household income, heavy fiscal support, and global trade that is a little weaker than it has been in recent months.

  • Traditional and Alternative Factors in Investment Grade Corporate Bond Investing download

    White papers 5 April 2019

    While the concept of factor investing has gained significant traction since the 2000s with the consequence of altering the landscape of equity investing, factor investing in fixed income remains in its infancy.

  • Persistence And Skill In The Performance Of Mutual Fund Families download

    White papers 26 March 2019

    Prior research has shown that decisions made at fund family level can account for a substantial portion of the performance of the individual active fund managers in the family.

  • Optimal Allocation in the S&P 600 under Size-Driven Illiquidity download

    White papers 26 March 2019

    A number of empirical studies have investigated how mutual funds do react to incoming financial resources. As long as liquidity constraints are narrow, fund managers tend to upscale already existing positions without looking for new investment opportunities.

  • Global Investment Views: A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side download

    White papers 25 March 2019

    Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in the current context.

  • Global Investment Views - April 2019 download

    White papers 25 March 2019

    A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side...

  • Gold in Central Banks’ Asset Allocation download

    White papers 15 March 2019

    After a long lacklustre period during the 1980s and 1990s, the price of gold has picked up significantly since the new millennium, and central banks, after having steadily reduced their allocation to gold, have resumed their gold purchases.

  • Q1 2019 - Global Asset Class Spotlights: Top Down Quarterly Assessment download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    The combination of monetary policy stances (more patient and flexible everywhere), encouraging tariff negotiations, Chinese authorities proving successful in their resolution to support the economic cycle are all potential triggers (and risks when mirrored) to risk assets and might help produce a positive short lasting reaction.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2019 download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    If an investor had woken up today after three months and looked at the markets, he/she could reasonably say that not much had changed. The year started on strong footing and risk assets experienced a massive rebound in the first weeks of 2019, erasing most of the losses experienced in one of the most awful Decembers in history. As a result some valuation gaps have been closed somewhat, though not exhausted. Markets switched rapidly from a “fear” to a “greed” mood. Catalysts of the renewed ...

  • H1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.

  • Brexit: an agreement is now more likely, but be aware of a no deal risk, not priced in download

    White papers 12 March 2019

    Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit deal: the Irish border backstop. This agreement is aimed at getting the U.K. Parliament to accept the Brexit deal previously rejected in January.

  • Financial Applications of Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Optimization download

    White papers 11 March 2019

    In the last five years, the financial industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and machine learning. In this article, we explore two methods that have undergone rapid development in recent years: Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization. Gaussian processes can be seen as a generalization of Gaussian random vectors and are associated with the development of kernel methods.

  • A dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector download

    White papers 8 March 2019

    The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.

  • Asset Class Views: Medium and Long Term Expected Returns download

    White papers 28 February 2019

    We break down asset class dynamics into a long term component (or trend/fair value), mainly related to macroeconomic variables and a medium-term component, explained by economic and financial cycles.

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