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The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.
While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.
On March 22, President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on around $50bln of Chinese imports (leaving Europe off for now) and China unveiled tariffs on $3bln of US imports. This adds to the measures announced on March 8, when US President Trump signed an order that imposes tariffs on imported steel (25%) and aluminum (10%), effective on March 23.
FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.