Amundi Asset Management

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  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - July 2019 download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Risk FactorsThe table within the article presents risk factors with judgmental probabilities (i.e. not market based). It also develops the possible market impacts.  Macroeconomic Context - Our convictions and our scenariosThis section provides a reminder of our central scenario and alternative scenarios Macroeconomic picture by areaAn overview of the macroeconomic outlook for world’s major economic regions...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July 2019 download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    CIO Views: Central Banks Fuel markets: Illusion vs Reality  This Month’s Topic: Italy: A Long and Winding Road...

  • G20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution download

    White papers 3 July 2019

    The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

  • How to differentiate emerging countries? New Approaches For Classification And Typology download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better: the wide divergence between countries, the health of some countries (sometimes better than some advanced countries) simply mean that it does not make sense to view the “emerging world” as a whole, as a block, but as well-defined, specific and homogeneous ..

  • Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.

  • Global Investment Views - July 2019 download

    White papers 26 June 2019

    The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the late cycle phase and mature market trends require improving fundamentals and positive political events to deliver sustainable uptrends in risk assets.

  • Factor Investing In Currency Markets: Does It Make Sense? download

    White papers 24 June 2019

    The concept of factor investing emerged at the end of the 2000s and has completely changed the landscape of equity investing. Today, institutional investors structure their strategic asset allocation around five risk factors: size, value, low beta, momentum and quality.

  • Pricing Individual Stock Options Using Both Stock And Market Index Information download

    White papers 18 June 2019

    When it comes to individual stock option pricing, most applications consider a univariate framework. From a theoretical point of view this is unsatisfactory as we know that the expected return of any asset is closely related to the exposure to the market risk factors.

  • Variance Premium, Downside Risk, And Expected Stock Returns download

    White papers 17 June 2019

    We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. The total variance risk premium (VRP) represents the premium paid to insure against fluctuations in bad variance (called bad VRP), net of the premium received to compensate for fluctuations in good variance (called good VRP).

  • The Road Back To The 70s: Implications For Investors download

    White papers 11 June 2019

    History shows that the economy and financial markets are dominated by long-term regimes that at some point come to a break point, where one regime gives way to a new one. This shift may not be easy to detect. Trapped in their comfort zones, with a short-term perspective, few may see it coming.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2019 download

    White papers 7 June 2019

    After weeks of relative stability, the threat of a trade war has returned, shaking investor confidence and awakening markets from complacency. However, while there is still a significant optimism in the market that a deal can be struck, we believe that the risk of disappointment leading to another wave of volatility remains significant.

  • The 2020 US Presidential Election: Another Close Race? weblink

    White papers 6 June 2019

    President Donald Trump’s performance on the US economy gives him a significant advantage over his Democratic rivals heading into the 2020 election. However, Trump has consistently polled poorly with voters on character issues including leadership, temperament and management skills. The potential fallout from the Mueller report and ongoing House investigations remain wildcards. The 2020 election could be another close call, possibly a 50-50 tossup at this stage ...

  • Environmental Social And Governance Proposals And Shareholder Activism download

    White papers 10 May 2019

    This chapter studies shareholder activism through environmental, social and governance (ESG) proposals between 1996 and 2015 filed by social responsible funds (“SRI”).

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q2 - 2019 download

    White papers 10 May 2019

    This document includes the perspective of Amundi on asset returns used to build reference portfolios for our institutional clients. A publication issued annually in February covers the major macro and financial foundations of our views, while this one provides a quarterly update of our medium and long-term expected returns by asset class.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2019 download

    White papers 2 May 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

  • Who Will Lead The World Economy? download

    White papers 2 May 2019

    When we talk about leadership, we also talk about rivalry… and 2018 was undoubtedly a particularly emblematic year of rivalry, especially between the United States and China, and to some extent, between the United States and Europe.

  • Is Inflation Definitely Dead Or Simply Dormant? Consequences For Central Banks download

    White papers 30 April 2019

    Inflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite low rates, liquidity injection programs… The BoJ and the ECB have made the bet (losing for the moment) that a ultra-accommodative monetary policy would quickly translate into a rise in inflation rates, while the Fed has opted for a “friendly” normalization of its ...

  • Emerging Market Green Bonds - Report 2018 download

    White papers 29 April 2019

    In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged the world to intensify its efforts to combat climate change by meeting the goal of the 2016 Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

  • Global Asset Class Spotlights - Top Down Quarterly Assessment download

    White papers 29 April 2019

    Growth, monetary policies and geopolitics remain the key drivers of market returns and investment decisions, with their relative influence changing over time. The YTD revival of risk assets has translated into rosier expectations on growth. We remain cautious; we confirm the late cycle environment with extra dovish central banks and growth stabilisation ahead, as our economists are predicting. However, we also look towards the reporting season to confirm the solidity of corporates’ ...

  • Global Investment Views - May 2019 download

    White papers 25 April 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

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