Amundi Asset Management

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  • Global Investment Views - September 2019 download

    White papers 4 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.

  • Revisiting Fixed Income Opportunities After The European Institution Appointments download

    White papers 15 July 2019

    The appointment of Christine Lagarde as President of the ECB and Ursula Von der Leyen as President of the European Commission are undoubtedly among the best possible compromises, because these are two women of great experience, both very much in favour of strengthening the European Union.

  • Italy: A Long And Winding Road download

    White papers 4 July 2019

    Arm-wrestling within the Italian government and between Italy and Brussels to find a solution to the Italian budget and avoid the Excessive Deficit Procedure. After Italy’s exit from a technical recession in H2 2018, economic data are still pointing to weakness, and many risks loom in the second half of this year.

  • Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term. download

    White papers 24 April 2019

    In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

  • H1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 8 October 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.

  • Global Investment Views: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Exchange rate predictability in Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 20 July 2018

    This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 7 May 2018

    While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.

  • Global Investment Views: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 24 April 2018

    Charting an investment path through the fog...

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: February 2018

    White papers 9 February 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

  • Global Investment Views: February 2018

    White papers 26 January 2018

    The recent sharp correction of equity markets and the increase in yields which have materialized since the start of the year have created a turbulent phase, interrupting the “Garden of Eden” kind of setting which investors were getting used to.

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