Amundi Asset Management

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  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019 download

    White papers 18 September 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Domestic focus to exploit Emerging Markets equity opportunities download

    White papers 1 September 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (i.e. China A shares in 2018).

  • Emerging Markets Charts & Views - Q3 2019 download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    The recent dovishness from the Fed, a benign inflation environment and the easing in global financial conditions continue to support a goldilocks environment for Emerging Markets (EM) assets. On the risks side, trade disputes appear to be softening as we approach the US presidential campaign. But the existing tariffs are weighing on the corporate earnings, with mixed prospects across regions as some countries are also benefitting from a restructuring of the global supply chain.

  • G20: Market Relief, Eyes Now On Central Bank's Execution download

    White papers 3 July 2019

    The worst case scenario of further trade escalation has been averted. The G20 meeting over the weekend resumed the negotiations between China and US on trade, after the tariffs increase in May on$200bn of Chinese products, and the consequent Chinese retaliation,which both put financial markets under pressure and increased downside risk to the economic outlook.

  • How to differentiate emerging countries? New Approaches For Classification And Typology download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that and consider that the emerging world deserves better: the wide divergence between countries, the health of some countries (sometimes better than some advanced countries) simply mean that it does not make sense to view the “emerging world” as a whole, as a block, but as well-defined, specific and homogeneous ..

  • Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries download

    White papers 1 July 2019

    This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it.

  • Global Investment Views - July 2019 download

    White papers 26 June 2019

    The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB).

  • Turkey: Inflation, Exchange Rate’s Pass-Through And Monetary Policy download

    White papers 25 June 2019

    Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months.

  • Investing in the changing shape of Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 18 June 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (ie China A shares in 2018), the surge in the size of EM bond markets and the further development of the local currency bond markets.

  • Economic Crisis And Political Risk Batter Argentina. Way Out Or Opportunity? download

    White papers 13 May 2019

    The economy is facing severe stagflation. Monetary and fiscal policy are extremely tight, consumer and investor confidence is low, and inflation is proving very sticky amidst wage indexation. Whilst we view the fiscal and monetary mix to be appropriate given Argentina’s macro challenges, it is possible that these measures may not be able to stabilise the economy in time for the elections.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2019 download

    White papers 2 May 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

  • Emerging Market Green Bonds - Report 2018 download

    White papers 29 April 2019

    In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged the world to intensify its efforts to combat climate change by meeting the goal of the 2016 Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

  • Global Investment Views - May 2019 download

    White papers 25 April 2019

    Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.

  • H1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility download

    White papers 13 March 2019

    Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.

  • Time to increase risk exposure: start with emerging markets and credit download

    White papers 29 January 2019

    The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.

  • Global Investment Views - February 2019 download

    White papers 23 January 2019

    After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.

  • Investment Perspectives For A New Regime Of Returns download

    White papers 14 January 2019

    After two years of positive performance across the board, with almost no asset class in negative territory, 2018 is marking a change of direction, with an unprecedented percentage of asset classes in red. This may cause a sense of uncertainty among investors facing uncharted waters ahead.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy - January 2019 download

    White papers 9 January 2019

    Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas: 1. From economic deceleration to where?  2. Fed pausing or continuing rate rises? 3. EMs: perfect storm or a recovery story?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019 weblink

    White papers 6 December 2018

    With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.

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