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The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.
This year has proven to be challenging for portfolio construction, as well as regarding returns. To put this into perspective, for 2009-17, our analysis shows that each year, on average, 76% of major asset classes (including different regional government bonds, equity, inflation-linked, currency and commodities) recorded positive performances.