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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2018
Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high.
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This Month's topic: CSPP leading the late phase of ECB QE
The ECB has already started “tapering” less corporate purchases than other programmes since April 2017, the month which saw the reduction from €80bn to €60bn of monthly purchases.
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Global Investment Views: January 2018
Investors have enjoyed a quiet year in 2017, with few bumpier spots, overall record-low volatility and nice returns. Moving into 2018, the temptation for risk assets is still high. The economic environment remains strong.
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Keep Up The Momentum
The momentum risk premium is one of the most important alternative risk premia alongside the carry risk premium. However, it appears that it is not always well understood.
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Megatrends and disruptions: Consequences for asset management
The asset management industry has to face three different types of challenges.
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Italy: back to growth
After underperforming against its peers for two decades in macroeconomic terms and following the deepest double-dip recession in its history (in 2008-2009 and in 2012-2013), the Italian economy is growing again, partially thanks to the strong, synchronised growth seen across the Eurozone, but also partially due to some structural improvements that have boosted competitiveness.
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How OPEC's decisions and tensions in the Middle East could impact the oil price
We expect the 2018 outlook for oil to remain somewhat stable ($55-60/bbl for WTI and $60-65/bbl for Brent through 2018) as strong demand should be balanced by higher supply from OPEC and Non-OPEC countries.
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The FED and tax reform: what's next for fixed income investors?
Fed: The FOMC decided to raise the fed funds target range for the third time this year to 1.25-1.50%.
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Investment takeaways from ECB year-end meeting
ECB growth expectations: The Eurozone is ending 2017 on surprisingly strong footing, resulting in a significant upward revision for GDP growth in 2018 (from 1.8 to 2.3%).
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Credit Continuum: How to make it happen
The Credit Continuum solution, while being a Buy & Watch solution, offers a high flexibility in terms of calibration of the key investment parameters and set of market segments.
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Back to long-term investing in the age of geopolitical risk
A sunny outlook with cloudy skies. That’s how investors see their current investment prospects.
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Real assets: what contribution to asset allocation, especially in times of crisis?
Sacrificing some portfolio liquidity can be profitable. Ultra-low bond rates, equities that are highly volatile and thus sometimes seen as too expensive, the search for yield and the search to capture a liquidity premium are all pushing institutional investors toward the unlisted or «real asset» universe.
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CIO Insights: Four investing paradigms for an era of regime shifts
In a market environment characterised by disruptive trends and possible regime shifts, asset managers need to evolve and to enhance their capabilities to understand, measure and factor these new trends into investment processes.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: December 2017
We believe 2018 will mark the transition from a full-speed reflationary phase, directional and bullish for risk assets (both credit and equities), towards a late phase of the financial market cycle. This could have far-reaching consequences for investors.
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A view on small and mid-cap equities moving towards 2018
The late-recovery is now broadening to all countries in Europe and their GDP components.
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A guide to the Middle East jigsaw
We think that recent events in the Middle East – in particular, the night of the long knives in Saudi Arabia and the resignation (then retracted) of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri – are pieces in the same jigsaw puzzle: the attempt to redraw political boundaries and delineate new geopolitical equilibria in the region.
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The covariance matrix between real assets
For assets that are sparsely traded, the time-variance of prices is of limited interest. It is more meaningful to compute price variance across assets and use that as an indicator of investment risk.
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Analysing the Exposure of Low-volatility Equity Strategies to Interest Rates
At the dawn of a potential rise in rates triggered by Central Banks in both Europe and the United States, doubts are being raised about the ability of low-volatility portfolios to continue to deliver robust performance.
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CHINA: 19th party congress and beyond
What are the key takeaways from the 19th Party Congress?
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What is in store for investors after the German government talks collapse?
There is still a possibility that a coalition will be formed, although it will take time.
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Venezuela on the edge of the cliff: let's be cautious
President Nicolas Maduro recently announced the Republic of Venezuela’s intention to restructure all foreign debt, thus recognising the country’s current debt load as unsustainable.
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The Bank of England raises rates: Bearish for the pound
The Bank of England (BoE) raised rates for the first time in more than a decade and the pound dropped. What is your reading of this?
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New Fed Chair: continuity but looser regulation
What is your view on the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, nominated by President Trump?
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A dovish ECB supports the credit market
What are the main messages coming from October ECB’s conference?
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European renaissance: The case for a selective approach
In our view, the concept of a “European renaissance” reflects the current phase in which multiple positive dynamics are unfolding in Europe.
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US proposed tax cuts in its impacts on Corporate profits
The US president has just announced its eagerly awaited tax reform. Since American stocks have become very expensive, we have focused on what could impact the earnings of listed companies.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: November 2017
After a less than thrilling summer, since September, equity markets have been relatively immune to news flow on the geopolitical front, despite North Korea’s nuclear threats and the crisis regarding Catalonia, which remains broadly unresolved.
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Global Investment Views: November 2017
After a less than thrilling summer, since September, equity markets have been relatively immune to news flow on the geopolitical front, despite North Korea’s nuclear threats and the crisis regarding Catalonia, which remains broadly unresolved. We see two main reasons for the uptick in equity market performance:...
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How the ECB’s quantitative easing transformed the European sovereign bond market
On 26 October, the ECB will announce a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases beginning in 2018, with a very likely phase-out of the purchases by the end of the year.
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Why Catalonia crisis should not trigger a market risk-off
We continue to firmly believe that Catalan independence will not happen.
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Factor Investing: Diversifying risks to enhance long-term performance download
For a long time, traditional equity investing has aimed at generating returns rather than managing risk. But in recent years institutional investors have started to change their attitude: mitigating risk is now more important than maximising returns.
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Global Investment Views: October 2017
Ongoing dovishness from Central Banks and higher geopolitical risks are the divergent forces driving financial markets at this point.
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Understanding the Momentum Risk Premium
Momentum risk premium is one of the most important alternative risk premia. Since it is considered a market anomaly, it is not always well understood...
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The food challenge: How can one achieve greater transparency?
What do we really eat? What information do labels give us? Do they tell us everything? Are companies really being transparent?
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Seeking sustainable income in a low rate environment
“Today income investors should explore opportunities across a broader range of asset classes in an effort to avoid the low yield trap”...
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The German yield curve is steeper than its US counterpart and this will amplify
Since April, the German yield curve is steeper than its US counterpart (considering the spread between the 10y. and the 2y. yields). This has not been so often the case since the creation of the Eurozone.
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Opportunities ahead in Asia EMs, despite increasing geopolitical tensions
EM Asian economies outlook has been improving and it’s expected to mildly improve further. We closely monitor geopolitical risk in the region.
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Catalonia crisis: Limited impact on European financial assets
“We expect the volatility on bonds generated by the Catalonia crisis to be short lived”...
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The Quest for Diversification: Why Does It Make Sense to Mix Risk Parity, Carry and Momentum Risk Premia?
Diversification should be the first objective of any large institutions because managing risk is a key source of long-term performance.
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German Elections: Investment views
The prospects for the German economy will not change dramatically, although there will be a moderate fiscal stimulus.
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Will the reshuffling of the FOMC change the monetary policy outlook in the United States?
Donald Trump should announce in the coming weeks his choice for the post of chair of the Board of Governors.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: Fed & ECB - Towards a reduction in monetary accommodation
The improvement of global economic conditions will allow the Fed and the ECB to reduce the degree of monetary accommodation, each with its own scale: continuation of the fed funds rate hike cycle for the Fed and reduction of asset purchases for the ECB.
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What higher bond yields may mean for corporate bond valuations
Both US and European credit markets have delivered a fairly positive yearto- date performance; supported by falling political risk, excess returns versus underlying government bonds proved to be particularly strong for EUR corporate bonds in the second quarter.
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US HY default rates: trends, projections and perspectives
The current low default rate regime of US HY issuers is the longest in recent decades and has also survived the latest commodity-driven mini cycle: the latter is close to its end and short-term expectations point to a further fall of the DR to around 3% in the coming quarters.
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Markets underestimate Fed’s ability to hike rates
Financial markets remain cautious about the ability of the Fed to hike the fed funds over the coming quarters: indeed, a majority of investors expect, at best, a single hike until the end of 2018. We think that this view is too pessimistic.
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Election in Germany: Continuity...but mind a few details
The polls predict a clear victory for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU but several government coalition scenarios are possible.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2017
Find the latest edition of Amundi Research team’s monthly publication.
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Global Investment Views: September 2017
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: The euro’s appreciation - causes, outlook and consequences
The euro remains undervalued according to the majority of valuation models and is boosted by a domestic economy that has strengthened considerably since the beginning of the year.
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Investment Talks: ECB on hold, but more details on what's next
The perspective of a turnaround in monetary policy is not going to vanish, and the tapering topic will be back probably sooner than later.
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