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US proposed tax cuts in its impacts on Corporate profits
The US president has just announced its eagerly awaited tax reform. Since American stocks have become very expensive, we have focused on what could impact the earnings of listed companies.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: November 2017
After a less than thrilling summer, since September, equity markets have been relatively immune to news flow on the geopolitical front, despite North Korea’s nuclear threats and the crisis regarding Catalonia, which remains broadly unresolved.
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Global Investment Views: November 2017
After a less than thrilling summer, since September, equity markets have been relatively immune to news flow on the geopolitical front, despite North Korea’s nuclear threats and the crisis regarding Catalonia, which remains broadly unresolved. We see two main reasons for the uptick in equity market performance:...
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How the ECB’s quantitative easing transformed the European sovereign bond market
On 26 October, the ECB will announce a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases beginning in 2018, with a very likely phase-out of the purchases by the end of the year.
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Why Catalonia crisis should not trigger a market risk-off
We continue to firmly believe that Catalan independence will not happen.
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Factor Investing: Diversifying risks to enhance long-term performance download
For a long time, traditional equity investing has aimed at generating returns rather than managing risk. But in recent years institutional investors have started to change their attitude: mitigating risk is now more important than maximising returns.
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Global Investment Views: October 2017
Ongoing dovishness from Central Banks and higher geopolitical risks are the divergent forces driving financial markets at this point.
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Understanding the Momentum Risk Premium
Momentum risk premium is one of the most important alternative risk premia. Since it is considered a market anomaly, it is not always well understood...
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The food challenge: How can one achieve greater transparency?
What do we really eat? What information do labels give us? Do they tell us everything? Are companies really being transparent?
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Seeking sustainable income in a low rate environment
“Today income investors should explore opportunities across a broader range of asset classes in an effort to avoid the low yield trap”...
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The German yield curve is steeper than its US counterpart and this will amplify
Since April, the German yield curve is steeper than its US counterpart (considering the spread between the 10y. and the 2y. yields). This has not been so often the case since the creation of the Eurozone.
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Opportunities ahead in Asia EMs, despite increasing geopolitical tensions
EM Asian economies outlook has been improving and it’s expected to mildly improve further. We closely monitor geopolitical risk in the region.
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Catalonia crisis: Limited impact on European financial assets
“We expect the volatility on bonds generated by the Catalonia crisis to be short lived”...
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The Quest for Diversification: Why Does It Make Sense to Mix Risk Parity, Carry and Momentum Risk Premia?
Diversification should be the first objective of any large institutions because managing risk is a key source of long-term performance.
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German Elections: Investment views
The prospects for the German economy will not change dramatically, although there will be a moderate fiscal stimulus.
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Will the reshuffling of the FOMC change the monetary policy outlook in the United States?
Donald Trump should announce in the coming weeks his choice for the post of chair of the Board of Governors.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: Fed & ECB - Towards a reduction in monetary accommodation
The improvement of global economic conditions will allow the Fed and the ECB to reduce the degree of monetary accommodation, each with its own scale: continuation of the fed funds rate hike cycle for the Fed and reduction of asset purchases for the ECB.
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What higher bond yields may mean for corporate bond valuations
Both US and European credit markets have delivered a fairly positive yearto- date performance; supported by falling political risk, excess returns versus underlying government bonds proved to be particularly strong for EUR corporate bonds in the second quarter.
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US HY default rates: trends, projections and perspectives
The current low default rate regime of US HY issuers is the longest in recent decades and has also survived the latest commodity-driven mini cycle: the latter is close to its end and short-term expectations point to a further fall of the DR to around 3% in the coming quarters.
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Markets underestimate Fed’s ability to hike rates
Financial markets remain cautious about the ability of the Fed to hike the fed funds over the coming quarters: indeed, a majority of investors expect, at best, a single hike until the end of 2018. We think that this view is too pessimistic.
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Election in Germany: Continuity...but mind a few details
The polls predict a clear victory for Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU but several government coalition scenarios are possible.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2017
Find the latest edition of Amundi Research team’s monthly publication.
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Global Investment Views: September 2017
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: The euro’s appreciation - causes, outlook and consequences
The euro remains undervalued according to the majority of valuation models and is boosted by a domestic economy that has strengthened considerably since the beginning of the year.
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Investment Talks: ECB on hold, but more details on what's next
The perspective of a turnaround in monetary policy is not going to vanish, and the tapering topic will be back probably sooner than later.
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Opportunities of deep-sea mining and ESG risks
In recent decades, interest in deep-sea mining has been growing, focusing mainly on three types of deposits: polymetallic nodules, polymetallic sulphides and cobalt-rich crusts.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2017
FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.
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Global Investment Views: July 2017
CIO views: High conviction ideas from Amundi Global Investment Committee...
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Palm oil, the environmental dilemma
Palm oil, used mainly and on a massive scale today by the agri-food and cosmetic industries, is severely criticised.
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Our Convictions: June 2017
What’s new in recent weeks?
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2017
Can global trade, which has declined sharply over the past decade, contribute to accelerating growth with consumption, investment and fiscal and tax policies?
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The green shoots of recovery download
In 2016, the green bond market was worth more than $90bn, a 120% increase on the previous year’s figure.
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French Presidential Elections: OAT/Bund spread - recent trends, equilibrium value and perspectives
Interest rate differentials between France and Germany rose sharply in the months leading up to the French presidential elections and even reached levels never seen since 2011.
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Our Convictions: May 2017
We have repeatedly mentioned how financial markets have tended to overestimate the risks of European elections, underestimate the fears of the Brexit and overestimate hopes on Trump’s economic policy.
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French Presidential Elections: Macron president - risks disappear...Back to fundamentals
The second round of the presidential election provided the name of the winner: E. Macron is the next president of the French Republic (66% of the votes).
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2017
The purpose of this article is to present the state of affairs on the polls, the priorities of the French and to recall the program of the two candidates as well as the major issues: to obtain a parliamentary majority for E. Macron, to obtain a parliamentary majority and to clarify her position on Europe for Marine Le Pen.
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Floating Rate Notes can help prepare for a hike in interest rates download
In a fast changing environment, FRNs are an increasingly attractive asset class, as they allow investors to reduce the sensitivity to interest rates fluctuations and to capture some potential yield.
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A broad range of ETFs to capture the potential of European equities download
Improving macroeconomic indicators & attractive valuations: all signs seem to point toward the European equity market picking up in 2017.
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Practical applications of Smart Beta download
How Amundi Smart Beta solutions can meet concrete investors’ needs...
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Using factor investing to navigate choppy, low-return markets download
Describing factors and how to implement them in portfolio construction...
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Positioning Value in Portfolio Construction download
Risk factors and their relationship with different macroeconomic environments are well understood. But in recent years these factors have not behaved as expected.
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Positioning Value in Portfolio Construction download
Value investing is well used by investors, and has been the subject of extensive academic research. Yet recent years have shown that value factor has not behaved as expected.
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Alternative Risk Premia: what do we know?
In a challenging low yield environment, rethinking traditional asset allocation strategies is a common challenge for investors and asset owners in order to diversify their portfolio and capture new sources of returns.
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Our Convictions: April 2017
Three major events during the past month...
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: April 2017
The Trump effect, the Brexit effect, and the impact of European elections… What if everyone – or nearly – were wrong?
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French Presidential Elections: French public debt - liquid and safe
France’s debt-to-GDP ratio stabilized until 2015, slightly under the threshold of 100%.
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Our Convictions: March 2017
No major changes on the macroeconomic front last month, but, rather, a confirmation of trends that we had already factored into our asset allocation.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy: March 2017
This month, we present the main issues and scenarios relating to French presidential and legislative elections, as well as the most likely market impacts.
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Cycles and asset allocation-key investment decisions
All investors share two key concerns: protecting their long-term purchasing power, and not losing any of the nominal value of their investment over the short term.
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Amundi Outlook 2017
As we enter 2017, we would like to take a step back and reflect on the evolution on the macro-financial system in which we operate.
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