Amundi Asset Management

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  • US Midterm election: A divided Congress opens two possible scenarios weblink

    White papers 7 November 2018

    Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q4 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 November 2018

    We stick to the view that 2018 will be the peak of the global economic cycle. 2019 will most likely be a year of deceleration albeit with still above trend growth, before a further slowdown of growth towards potential in 2020.

  • Central European countries: Outlook to 2020 weblink

    White papers 6 November 2018

    Global growth resynchronised in 2017. In this particularly bullish environment, Central European countries “outperformed” with growth rates of between 4% and 6%.

  • Brazilian elections: lights and shadows on the horizon weblink

    White papers 31 October 2018

    The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad.

  • Global Investment Views: November 2018 weblink

    White papers 25 October 2018

    The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise...

  • Deep dive in factor definitions and behaviors to better combine them download

    White papers 24 October 2018

    Anticipating the economic and financial environment evolution and its impact on equity market is not easy.

  • Factor Investing and Smart Beta Solutions download

    White papers 24 October 2018

    Smart Beta & Factor Investing strategies have been developed to address the two main limits of traditional market capitalization weighted indices.

  • Corporate earnings in 2019: A fading momentum is in store! weblink

    White papers 22 October 2018

    After two years of strong earnings momentum, EPS growth is expected to decline considerably from 2019.

  • Bavarian elections: European political landscape continues to evolve weblink

    White papers 16 October 2018

    The election result in Bavaria marked the defeat of the conservative CSU, which lost its absolute majority, and of its junior ally, the SPD.

  • Late cycle features at play: more pain, but not the end of the game weblink

    White papers 11 October 2018

    Market sell-off: a late cycle feature where uncertainty due to tariffs, rates and oil prices are sending some red signals.

  • US midterm election: potential economic agenda and market implications weblink

    White papers 10 October 2018

    In the upcoming US Midterm elections on November 6, there are high expectations of divided Congress, with the Democratic Party taking control of the House of Representatives and the Grand Old Party retaining control of the Senate.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 8 October 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year.

  • Tail Risk Adjusted Sharpe Ratio weblink

    White papers 5 October 2018

    The Sharpe Ratio has become a standard measure of portfolio management performance, taking into account the risk side. In that framework, the consideration of risk is reduced to returns volatility. The Sharpe Ratio does not encompass extreme risk, especially on the downside.

  • Italian budget proposal under scrutiny weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The key points of the budget law. The Italian Government negatively surprised the markets by announcing a substantially increased budget deficit target for 2019-2021 to 2.4% in a move that could undermine the potential to reduce the Italian debt burden (130% of GDP) in the coming years.

  • The Fed adopts a cautious approach for 2020-2021 weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    What to retain from the Fed meeting?

  • Global Investment Views: October 2018 weblink

    White papers 28 September 2018

    The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.

  • Robust asset allocation for robo-advisors weblink

    White papers 27 September 2018

    In the last few years, the financial advisory industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and roboadvisors. This phenomenon affects major financial services, including wealth management, employee savings plans, asset managers, private banks, pension funds, banking services, etc.

  • BlackRock vs Norway fund at shareholder meetings: Institutional investors’ votes on corporate externalities weblink

    White papers 26 September 2018

    Do institutional investors engage with companies on corporate externalities such as greenhouse gas emissions? And if so, why?

  • European Equity: Combining value and quality in this new market phase weblink

    White papers 20 September 2018

    We believe we have entered a mature stage of the financial cycle amid central bank monetary policy normalisation (more advanced in the US) and decelerating economic growth globally. Protectionist dynamics are also features of this phase of the cycle, while the US fiscal expansion and a capex revival are all forces working to extend it.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Global Investment Views: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 September 2018

    The year began with a synchronised global recovery as most economies benefited from a buoyant environment. The risk of inflation and CB mistakes dominated investors’ fears.

  • 10 years after Lehman: A reality check for the future weblink

    White papers 14 September 2018

    It has been 10 years since the collapse of Lehman marked the beginning of the Great Recession, which threw the global economy into its deepest economic crisis since the 1930s.

  • Identifying Opportunities Through the Emerging Markets Continuum download

    White papers 1 September 2018

    A holistic approach, to information sharing and analysis, flips the script on emerging market investment strategies...

  • Turkey shakes summer thin markets, but contagion risk is contained weblink

    White papers 14 August 2018

    The domestic boom has been financed by private debt (mainly external debt). Well before this week’s crisis, Turkey was the most vulnerable country in our EM ranking...

  • Where will the next financial crisis come from? Are we ready to confront it? weblink

    White papers 2 August 2018

    The world is not yet completely out of the 2007- 2008 financial crisis, but the risk of a new crisis already arises. The theme of “regime shift” (volatility, interest rate, inflation, etc.) has resurfaced, which led to a marked correction in financial markets in January – February.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • Global Investment Views: August 2018 weblink

    White papers 27 July 2018

    Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.

  • Exchange rate predictability in Emerging Markets weblink

    White papers 20 July 2018

    This paper uses financial and macroeconomic variables to predict currency returns, by using a two-step procedure. The first step consists of a cointegration equation that explains the exchange rate level as a function of global and domestic financial factors. The second step estimates an error-correction equation, for modeling the expected returns. This approach is a factor model analysis, where a Lasso derived technique is used for variable selection.

  • The living wage: towards better industry practices weblink

    White papers 17 July 2018

    The concept of living wage goes back to the early twentieth century, with the creation of the International Labour Organization in 1919. Subsequently, this concept was taken up several times in texts that played a structural role in labour law (Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Tripartite Declaration of Principles concerning Multinational Enterprises and Social Policy, and the ILO Declaration on Social Justice for a Fair Globalization).

  • China Assets hit by trade talks: what expect from now weblink

    White papers 12 July 2018

    The US-China relationship appears to be deteriorating. US recently published a list of an additional $200bn of Chinese products subject to 10% tariff rates that will be put forward for the public hearing process by 30 August and could possibly be implemented in September.

  • Pacte Law: what changes lie ahead for savings in France weblink

    White papers 12 July 2018

    The Pacte Law, presented on June 18, 2018 at the French Council of Ministers, should come into force no later than January 2020, after a period of parliamentary debates and the publication of implementing decrees.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Since the beginning of the year, emerging market risky assets have become more volatile.

  • CIO Insights: Key investment convictions for the short and long term weblink

    White papers 6 July 2018

    Long-term investing is about the belief that fundamental value exists and that asset class returns tend to mean revert to their equilibrium level and rotate around it, within regimes.

  • Protectionism intensifies: country and sector selection to mitigate its effects weblink

    White papers 4 July 2018

    As a base case, we expect limited tariffs will be implemented on different fronts with relatively controlled macro impacts while talks continue. Although talks have become more contentious, we do still see space for negotiation among the various parties. This is the main difference vs a proper “trade war”.

  • Global Investment Views: July 2018 weblink

    White papers 26 June 2018

    Investors have experienced generally low returns so far this year, due to the clouds currently gathering on the horizon, and the approach to risk assets is being characterised by increased caution.

  • Portfolio allocation with skewness risk: a practical guide weblink

    White papers 19 June 2018

    In this article, we show how to take into account skewness risk in portfolio allocation.

  • The FED leans hawkish and short rates move higher weblink

    White papers 18 June 2018

    While the Fed under Chair Yellen acknowledged global risks in early 2016 as a contributing factor in its decision to defer rate increases, it is unclear whether global factors would exert as significant an impact on the current FOMC.

  • ECB: Short term rates anchored weblink

    White papers 15 June 2018

    According to the ECB projections, the GDP expansion will remain above potential for the next two years, driven by both domestic investment and household consumption. Inflation is revised up, albeit modestly.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    Go the extra mile, but check the exits...

  • Italy: Troubled waters and complex challenges ahead but no Italexit on the roadmap! weblink

    White papers 14 June 2018

    In just a few days, investors have shifted from perhaps excessive complacency to excess pessimism about Italian politics.

  • Italy: Fundamentals are the compass amid political twists weblink

    White papers 5 June 2018

    A new Government: After three months of deadlock, 5Star Movement and the League agreed on a redesigned Government formation.

  • MSCI China A-share inclusion along the way of China’s transition to quality growth weblink

    White papers 1 June 2018

    In June 2017, MSCI announced the partial inclusion of China’s domestically traded, yuan-denominated stocks, or so-called A-shares to MSCI China, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI All Country indices, which is to be implemented from June 2018.

  • France: Significant promises kept, but the most crucial reforms will take time weblink

    White papers 31 May 2018

    One year on from his election victory the French president has already lived up to some of his campaign promises, most visibly regarding labour market regulation and taxation, actions that have generally been welcomed by international financial commentators.

  • How to play the oil price swings weblink

    White papers 31 May 2018

    Oil price: We confirm our target price for the next 12 months in the range of $60-70 per barrel.

  • Italy towards new elections weblink

    White papers 28 May 2018

    On May 27th, the designated Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte gave up his mandate to form a Government.

  • Seeking to enhance diversification? Time to explore currency strategies weblink

    White papers 25 May 2018

    Forex strategies rely on a portfolio manager’s ability to exploit differences in the relative values of the world’s major currencies. To do this, specialists combine fundamental analysis and quantitative models to identify the currencies that seem over- or undervalued.

  • Global Investment Views: June 2018 weblink

    White papers 22 May 2018

    We have entered into a regime of diminished returns. Sensitivity to news flow is, and will continue to be, very high, as markets try to adjust to new financial and economic conditions.

  • Profit trend and cycle analysis: a long-medium-short term sanity check weblink

    White papers 22 May 2018

    Profits fluctuations are often related to the economic business cycle as they are a crucial driver for investment decisions and ultimately are an important engine for economic growth.

  • Italian political transition following unclear paths. Wise to wait and see weblink

    White papers 22 May 2018

    The political situation in Italy is still uncertain, with some indication, but no formal appointment of the Prime Minister. We may witness a somewhat unusual state of affairs over the next few days, a sort of “technical government” of no parliamentary extraction, subject to a political contract.

  • Italy on watch list weblink

    White papers 15 May 2018

    Political uncertainty in Italy remains high. The probability of a Government formed between the 5Star Movement (M5S) and the League (the most voted party in the centre right coalition) has increased in recent days, but the process of government formation is not straightforward.

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