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  • US-China Trade War: Walking a Tightrope download

    White papers 23 August 2019

    Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in June. However, the truce was short-lived and China responded with its own set of measures in form of a suspension of US agricultural imports and currency devaluation, which could further escalate the situation.

  • US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war download

    White papers 14 May 2019

    In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues remain, and on these it is largely up to Trump and XI to make final decisions.

  • China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations download

    White papers 7 February 2019

    The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round.

  • From G20: Short-Term Relief, But It Is Not The Final Word On Trade Disputes weblink

    White papers 3 December 2018

    The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.

  • Global Trade War: Where Do we Stand Now? What Impacts? weblink

    White papers 28 November 2018

    A few days before the important meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, it is important to have a clear view on the trade dispute between the two countries and on the potential impacts of a trade war.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: September 2018 weblink

    White papers 19 September 2018

    Italian budget discussions are going to intensify as the 27th of September approaches, date of publication of the document outlining the new budget law and when there should be more clarity on the key economic projections and deficit targets.

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018 weblink

    White papers 1 August 2018

    The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.

  • China Assets hit by trade talks: what expect from now weblink

    White papers 12 July 2018

    The US-China relationship appears to be deteriorating. US recently published a list of an additional $200bn of Chinese products subject to 10% tariff rates that will be put forward for the public hearing process by 30 August and could possibly be implemented in September.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2018 weblink

    White papers 7 May 2018

    While in 2017 financial markets largely ignored geopolitical risks, as they were more inclined to read the Goldilocks narrative, this mood now appears to be changing.

  • Ten key questions on recent US protectionist measures

    White papers 23 March 2018

    On March 22, President Trump announced a new round of tariffs on around $50bln of Chinese imports (leaving Europe off for now) and China unveiled tariffs on $3bln of US imports. This adds to the measures announced on March 8, when US President Trump signed an order that imposes tariffs on imported steel (25%) and aluminum (10%), effective on March 23.

  • CHINA: 19th party congress and beyond

    White papers 20 November 2017

    What are the key takeaways from the 19th Party Congress?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: July 2017

    White papers 1 August 2017

    FOMC members plan to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet this year and gave recently some precisions about how they will do.

  • Our Convictions: June 2017

    White papers 7 July 2017

    What’s new in recent weeks?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2017

    White papers 30 June 2017

    Can global trade, which has declined sharply over the past decade, contribute to accelerating growth with consumption, investment and fiscal and tax policies?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: May 2017

    White papers 5 May 2017

    The purpose of this article is to present the state of affairs on the polls, the priorities of the French and to recall the program of the two candidates as well as the major issues: to obtain a parliamentary majority for E. Macron, to obtain a parliamentary majority and to clarify her position on Europe for Marine Le Pen.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: April 2017

    White papers 6 April 2017

    The Trump effect, the Brexit effect, and the impact of European elections… What if everyone – or nearly – were wrong?

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: March 2017

    White papers 15 March 2017

    This month, we present the main issues and scenarios relating to French presidential and legislative elections, as well as the most likely market impacts.

  • Cross Asset Investment Strategy: January 2017

    White papers 16 January 2017

    As 2017 begins, it is helpful to take stock of the key issues coming into focus.

  • Cross Asset: 2017 and beyond

    White papers 22 November 2016

    In an ultra-low or even negative interest rate environment, maintaining an overweight stance in emerging market assets (equities, debt and currencies), in credit (vs. government bonds) still makes sense, while continuing our search for yield and spreads.

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